US Retail Summary

Monthly Retail

Monthly US Retail Sales Summary: December 2011
It appears the holiday season wasn’t as strong as first thought as overall retail sales for December came in less than expected and the monthly gain was the smallest in seven months. The U.S. Department of Commerce reported that Advance Estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services sales for December increased a slight 0.1% over the prior month to a seasonally adjusted $400.61 Billion, while sales increased 6.5% compared to the year-ago period. Year-over-year, this was the 26th straight gain after 14 consecutive months of declines, which was the longest such streak on record. Excluding Autos, Gas Stations and Restaurants, total holiday season (Nov-Dec) sales rose 4.1% to $471.67 billion. Total sales excluding Autos were up 6.0% in December from the year-ago period but fell 0.2% from the prior month, the first decline since May 2010, while total sales less Autos and Gas Stations showed a 5.5% year-on-year increase and were flat from the prior month, the weakest showing since July 2010. For the month, only 7 of 13 categories saw growth over November: Besides Autos (+8.8% YoY, +1.5 MoM), which continue to strengthen off a depressed level, the only categories to show significant strength were Building Materials Suppliers (+5.8% YoY, +1.6% MoM) and Furniture & Home Furnishings Stores (+5.6% YoY, +1.0% MoM. Electronics stores (Flat YoY, -3.9% MoM) saw a huge drop-off after a relatively strong November, indicating a robust Black Friday pulled sales into November from December, and total 2011 sales only rose 0.4% from 2010. Online sales, the clear out-performer throughout the holiday season, fell 0.4% from November but still increased double digits (+10.6%) from the prior year in December. comScore reported that e-commerce spending for the overall holiday season increased 15% over the prior year to nearly $37.2 billion. Brick-and-mortar chains were forced to offer free shipping throughout the holiday season to compete with the likes of Amazon, further crimping margins on top of the effect of heavy discounting. Sales at Clothing Retailers (+6.0% YoY / +0.7% MoM) were relatively strong for the second straight month, but General Merchandise Stores (+2.7% YoY / -0.8% MoM and Department Stores (-1.0% YoY / -0.2% MoM) were once again tepid. All three categories were hurt by the lack of winter storms and significantly higher-than-average national temperatures, which held back sales of winter-related merchandise. January and February are typically the lightest-volume months of the year, with retailers focused on clearing inventory and rolling out Valentine’s Day and spring lines. Consumers ramped up their use of credit cards and dipped into savings for the holiday splurge and we expect sales to slow in the first quarter of 2012.

Monthly US Retail Sales Summary: December 2011

It appears the holiday season wasn’t as strong as first thought as overall retail sales for December came in less than expected and the monthly gain was the smallest in seven months.

The U.S. Department of Commerce reported that Advance Estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services sales for December increased a slight 0.1% over the prior month to a seasonally adjusted $400.61 Billion, while sales increased 6.5% compared to the year-ago period. Year-over-year, this was the 26th straight gain after 14 consecutive months of declines, which was the longest such streak on record. Excluding Autos, Gas Stations and Restaurants, total holiday season (Nov-Dec) sales rose 4.1% to $471.67 billion.

Total sales excluding Autos were up 6.0% in December from the year-ago period but fell 0.2% from the prior month, the first decline since May 2010, while total sales less Autos and Gas Stations showed a 5.5% year-on-year increase and were flat from the prior month, the weakest showing since July 2010.

For the month, only 7 of 13 categories saw growth over November: Besides Autos (+8.8% YoY, +1.5 MoM), which continue to strengthen off a depressed level, the only categories to show significant strength were Building Materials Suppliers (+5.8% YoY, +1.6% MoM) and Furniture & Home Furnishings Stores (+5.6% YoY, +1.0% MoM.

Electronics stores (Flat YoY, -3.9% MoM) saw a huge drop-off after a relatively strong November, indicating a robust Black Friday pulled sales into November from December, and total 2011 sales only rose 0.4% from 2010.

Online sales, the clear out-performer throughout the holiday season, fell 0.4% from November but still increased double digits (+10.6%) from the prior year in December. comScore reported that e-commerce spending for the overall holiday season increased 15% over the prior year to nearly $37.2 billion. Brick-and-mortar chains were forced to offer free shipping throughout the holiday season to compete with the likes of Amazon, further crimping margins on top of the effect of heavy discounting.

Sales at Clothing Retailers (+6.0% YoY / +0.7% MoM) were relatively strong for the second straight month, but General Merchandise Stores (+2.7% YoY / -0.8% MoM and Department Stores (-1.0% YoY / -0.2% MoM) were once again tepid. All three categories were hurt by the lack of winter storms and significantly higher-than-average national temperatures, which held back sales of winter-related merchandise.

January and February are typically the lightest-volume months of the year, with retailers focused on clearing inventory and rolling out Valentine’s Day and spring lines. Consumers ramped up their use of credit cards and dipped into savings for the holiday splurge and we expect sales to slow in the first quarter of 2012.

Total US Monthly Retail & Food Services Sales

Monthly US Retail Sales (in $millions): December 2011
Type of Business	Sales	YoY Chg	MoM Chg	2011 Chg
Total Retail & Food Services	$ 400,614	6.5%	0.1%	7.7%
excl. Autos	$ 328,741	6.0%	-0.2%	7.3%
excl. Autos & Gasoline	$ 283,959	5.5%	0.0%	5.8%

Total Retail	$ 357,975	6.3%	0.0%	7.9%
excl. Autos	$ 286,102	5.6%	-0.3%	7.4%
excl. Autos & Gasoline	$ 241,320	5.1%	-0.1%	5.7%

GAFO Retail*	$ 98,780	3.8%	-0.1%	3.6%
Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers	$ 71,873	8.8%	1.5%	9.9%
Auto & Other Motor Vehicle Dealers	$ 65,055	9.5%	1.7%	10.5%
Furniture & Home Furnishings Stores	$ 7,702	5.6%	1.0%	1.9%
Electronics & Appliance Stores	$ 8,300	0.0%	-3.9%	0.4%
Building Material & Garden Eq. / Supplies Dealers	$ 25,879	5.8%	1.6%	5.7%
Food & Beverage Stores	$ 51,826	4.9%	-0.2%	5.5%
Grocery Stores	$ 46,372	4.7%	-0.2%	5.7%
Health & Personal Care Stores	$ 23,257	3.1%	0.6%	4.5%
Gasoline Stations	$ 44,782	8.9%	-1.6%	17.7%
Clothing & Accessories Stores	$ 19,182	6.0%	0.7%	5.9%
Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book & Music Stores	$ 7,433	2.8%	0.4%	5.1%
General Merchandise Stores	$ 52,727	2.7%	-0.8%	3.5%
Department Stores (excl. leased depts.)	$ 15,219	-1.0%	-0.2%	-1.1%
Miscellaneous Store Retailers	$ 10,277	7.3%	-0.4%	8.1%
Nonstore Retailers	$ 34,737	10.6%	-0.4%	12.5%
Food Services & Drinking Places	$ 42,639	8.4%	0.7%	6.1%

source: U.S. Department of Commerce MoM & YoY figures are adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes *GAFO includes NAICS codes 442, 443, 448, 451, 452, and 4532. NAICS code 4532 (which includes office supplies, stationery, and gift stores) is estimated by RetailSails as the D.O.C reports this business on a 1-month lag.