US Retail Summary

Monthly Retail

Monthly US Retail Sales Summary: April 2012
Retail sales in the U.S. barely rose in April, as the boost from an unseasonably warm start to the year faded and the early spring buying spree seems to have pulled sales forward. The U.S. Department of Commerce reported that Advance Estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services sales for April increased just 0.1% over the prior month to a seasonally adjusted $408.0 Billion, slightly less than consensus estimates for a 0.2% gain, while sales increased 6.4% compared to the year-ago period. Year-over-year, this was the 30th straight gain after 14 consecutive months of declines, which was the longest such streak on record. Total sales excluding Autos were up 5.9% in April from the year-ago period and rose 0.1% from the prior month, while total sales less Autos and Gas Stations showed a 6.0% year-on-year increase and also rose 0.1% month-on-month following a 0.8% gain in March. Though 9 of 13 categories showed increases over the prior month, strength was muted – gainers were led by: Nonstore Retailers (+11.0% YoY, +1.1 MoM), Miscellaneous Store Retailers (+8.5% YoY, +0.8% MoM), Furniture & Home Furnishing Stores (+7.6% YoY, +0.7% MoM), Auto & Parts Dealers (+8.4% YoY, +0.5% MoM) and Health & Personal Care Stores (+4.4% YoY, +0.6% MoM). Online sales continue to significantly outperform overall retail – comScore reported that e-commerce sales jumped 17% in the first quarter to $44.3 billion (govt. figures will be reported Thursday morning). This was the tenth straight quarter of positive year-over-year growth and sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. Unseasonably warm weather throughout the winter and early spring, as well as Easter falling 2 weeks earlier this year than last seems to have led to much earlier seasonal buying, as steep declines were seen last month at Building Materials & Supplies Dealers (+10.3% YoY, -1.8% MoM), Department Stores (-2.6% YoY, -1.4% MoM) and Clothing & Accessories Stores (+5.4% YoY, -0.7% MoM). While the calendar shift certainly played a part in April’s weakness, with Easter much earlier and Mother’s Day a week later than last year, it’s becoming increasingly clear consumers shifted seasonal purchases into the early part of the year and there was a substantial drop-off in spending post-Easter. Gas prices have fallen for six consecutive weeks, cumulatively declining by 18.7 cents over that period, which should ease the burden on household discretionary buying power, but unfortunately consumer confidence has followed the same course. The negative effects of austerity in Europe, the slowdown in China and the sharp decline in global equity markets have only exacerbated the situation, and have hit luxury retail especially hard. With a lack of shopping events until back-to-school, we expect the weak spending environment to continue throughout the second quarter.

Monthly US Retail Sales Summary: April 2012

Retail sales in the U.S. barely rose in April, as the boost from an unseasonably warm start to the year faded and the early spring buying spree seems to have pulled sales forward.

The U.S. Department of Commerce reported that Advance Estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services sales for April increased just 0.1% over the prior month to a seasonally adjusted $408.0 Billion, slightly less than consensus estimates for a 0.2% gain, while sales increased 6.4% compared to the year-ago period. Year-over-year, this was the 30th straight gain after 14 consecutive months of declines, which was the longest such streak on record.

Total sales excluding Autos were up 5.9% in April from the year-ago period and rose 0.1% from the prior month, while total sales less Autos and Gas Stations showed a 6.0% year-on-year increase and also rose 0.1% month-on-month following a 0.8% gain in March.

Though 9 of 13 categories showed increases over the prior month, strength was muted – gainers were led by: Nonstore Retailers (+11.0% YoY, +1.1 MoM), Miscellaneous Store Retailers (+8.5% YoY, +0.8% MoM), Furniture & Home Furnishing Stores (+7.6% YoY, +0.7% MoM), Auto & Parts Dealers (+8.4% YoY, +0.5% MoM) and Health & Personal Care Stores (+4.4% YoY, +0.6% MoM).

Online sales continue to significantly outperform overall retail – comScore reported that e-commerce sales jumped 17% in the first quarter to $44.3 billion (govt. figures will be reported Thursday morning). This was the tenth straight quarter of positive year-over-year growth and sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth.

Unseasonably warm weather throughout the winter and early spring, as well as Easter falling 2 weeks earlier this year than last seems to have led to much earlier seasonal buying, as steep declines were seen last month at Building Materials & Supplies Dealers (+10.3% YoY, -1.8% MoM), Department Stores (-2.6% YoY, -1.4% MoM) and Clothing & Accessories Stores (+5.4% YoY, -0.7% MoM).

While the calendar shift certainly played a part in April’s weakness, with Easter much earlier and Mother’s Day a week later than last year, it’s becoming increasingly clear consumers shifted seasonal purchases into the early part of the year and there was a substantial drop-off in spending post-Easter.

Gas prices have fallen for six consecutive weeks, cumulatively declining by 18.7 cents over that period, which should ease the burden on household discretionary buying power, but unfortunately consumer confidence has followed the same course.

The negative effects of austerity in Europe, the slowdown in China and the sharp decline in global equity markets have only exacerbated the situation, and have hit luxury retail especially hard. With a lack of shopping events until back-to-school, we expect the weak spending environment to continue throughout the second quarter.

Total US Monthly Retail & Food Services Sales

Monthly US Retail Sales (in $millions): April 2012
Type of Business	Sales	YoY Chg	MoM Chg	YTD Chg
Total Retail & Food Services	$ 408,039	6.4%	0.1%	7.2%
excl. Autos	$ 334,475	5.9%	0.1%	7.1%
excl. Autos & Gasoline	$ 287,836	6.0%	0.1%	6.8%

Total Retail	$ 364,163	6.1%	0.1%	7.0%
excl. Autos	$ 290,599	5.5%	0.0%	6.8%
excl. Autos & Gasoline	$ 243,960	5.5%	0.1%	6.4%

GAFO Retail*	$ 100,257	3.6%	-0.2%	5.3%
Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers	$ 73,564	8.4%	0.5%	7.7%
Auto & Other Motor Vehicle Dealers	$ 66,440	8.6%	0.3%	7.8%
Furniture & Home Furnishings Stores	$ 7,892	7.6%	0.7%	8.8%
Electronics & Appliance Stores	$ 8,428	1.7%	0.2%	1.4%
Building Material & Garden Eq. / Supplies Dealers	$ 25,147	10.3%	-1.8%	12.7%
Food & Beverage Stores	$ 52,709	3.2%	0.3%	4.2%
Grocery Stores	$ 47,295	3.0%	0.5%	4.0%
Health & Personal Care Stores	$ 23,251	4.4%	0.6%	3.3%
Gasoline Stations	$ 46,639	5.5%	-0.3%	8.7%
Clothing & Accessories Stores	$ 19,736	5.4%	-0.7%	7.5%
Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book & Music Stores	$ 7,502	7.2%	0.7%	6.5%
General Merchandise Stores	$ 53,696	2.6%	-0.1%	4.4%
Department Stores (excl. leased depts.)	$ 15,280	-2.6%	-1.4%	0.4%
Miscellaneous Store Retailers	$ 10,135	8.5%	0.8%	9.4%
Nonstore Retailers	$ 35,464	11.0%	1.1%	10.7%
Food Services & Drinking Places	$ 43,876	8.6%	0.4%	8.9%

source: U.S. Department of Commerce Figures are adjusted for seasonal variations, holiday & trading-day differences, but not for price changes *GAFO includes NAICS codes 442, 443, 448, 451, 452, and 4532. NAICS code 4532 (which includes office supplies, stationery, and gift stores) is estimated by RetailSails as the D.O.C reports this business on a 1-month lag.