Posts Tagged 'hot topic (hott)'



May Same-Store Sales: Early Bird Special

While most major retailers won’t report same-store sales results for May 2009 until tomorrow (minus Wal-Mart who previously announced they would no longer report on a monthly basis), we got a preview today from 2 mall-based retailers – Hot Topic and Zumiez.  If their results are a sign of things to come, it could put a dent in the idea that retail sales have turned the corner.

  • Hot Topic reported a decline in overall net sales of 2.9% from the prior year, while same-store sales were down 6.4%.  Analysts had expected a same-store sales decline of 4.3%.  The company had previously reported 7 consecutive months of same-store gains, but CFO Jim McGinty said on a pre-recorded call that virtually all accessory classifications slowed substantially from the first-quarter  trends as a result of lower levels of in-store traffic.  Hot Topic same-store sales were down 6.3% while Torrid stores showed a 6.9% decline.
  • Zumiez reported a 9.6% decline in total net sales with a same-store sales decline of 20.7%, worse than the 20.2% fall analysts were expecting.  “For the month, all departments posted a decline in same-store sales,” finance chief Trevor Lang noted on a pre-recorded call.  This marks the 9th consecutive month of negative same-store sales results for the company.

Obvisouly this is just a small sample, so we will have to wait until tomorrow when another 30+ retailers report until we can draw any conclusions.  However, it’s certainly not a good sign when a company like Hot Topic which had been holding up relatively well fares so poorly…

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Virtually all accessory classifications slowed substantially from the first-quarter same-store sales trend as a result of lower levels of in-store traffic

Buckle Up: A Mall-Based Retailer Shines

Although we learned this week that consumers are more upbeat about the future of the economy than at any time since September, it’s doubtful that sentiment will translate into a meaningful improvement in performance for most retailers – mall stores have been hit especially hard which makes the continued out-performance of The Buckle even more impressive.  This mall-based retailer, similar in size and flavor to the likes of Zumiez, Wet Seal and Hot Topic, seems to have forgotten that we are in a recession.  How about this – 21 consecutive months of double-digit same-store sales gains, with 32 consecutive months of positive same-store sales results overall:

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That’s great, you say – a whole bunch of top line growth, but what about the bottom line?  Even better – margins continue to improve and bottom line growth is faster than revenue growth:

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If we compare their performance against the previously mentioned competition it looks all the more impressive.  While Hot Topic seems to have turned the corner with 7 straight months of positive same-store sales, the same cannot be said of Zumiez or Wet Seal, who is really getting killed by the performance of Arden B stores in particular:

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Unlike similar mall-based shops who seemingly try to double their store count every 3 years, The Buckle has been very conservative only opening about 20 new stores per year:

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Throw in the fact they pay a neat little dividend (currently yields about 2.2%) and have no debt to speak of with about $162 million in cash, and you have yourself an all-around impressive retailer.  While I certainly wish I found this gem of a company before the stock climbed over 162% from its November lows, it’s certainly worth keeping an eye on for the future…

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