A couple of mall-based teen retailers reported same store sales results for July today, and while both companies beat consensus analyst expectations, Hot Topic and Zumiez continue to post steep year-over-year declines. Both mentioned the large impact of Labor Day falling a week later than last year – tax holidays were shifted to the first week of August from the last week of July, and companies are waiting until August for most back-to-school promotions:
- Hot Topic reported a decrease of 6.9% in net sales and an 8.5% decline in overall July same-store sales compared to the prior period (vs. estimates of -8.9%). Torrid same-store sales were -7.6% and Hot Topic same-store sales were -8.8% for the month. Internet sales were the one bright spot for the company in July, as hotopic.com sales were up 14% and torrid.com sales increased 37% from a year ago. The company said the best performing categories for the month were men’s and accessories, while music and women’s both posted negative double-digit comps. They also said July was negatively affected by Labor Day falling a week later than last year, as tax holidays and their own promotions were shifted to the first week of August this year. There will be a conference call on August 19th to discuss 2nd quarter results, but Hot Topic reported that sales were down 5.3% for the quarter, while same-store sales declined 7.7%. This breaks a string of steadily improving results since Q4 ‘07.


- Zumiez reported a decline of 5.6% in net sales and a 16.8% decrease in same-store sales (vs. -20.8% estimates) on top of a 1.4% decline in the prior period. They have now reported 11 consecutive months as well as 5 straight quarters of negative same-store sales results. The company said that all departments posted negative comps during the month, and the south and west were the worst-performing geographic regions. Because Labor Day falls a week later than last year, the company expects August to be negatively impacted by later back-to-school promotions, while September will be positively affected.

Overall, we expect consolidated July same-store sales to be down 5-5.5%, or slightly worse than the 4.7% decline in June. Apparel/accessory stores and department stores will continue to be laggards, while discount and off-price will be out-performers. We will be posting results for the 35 companies that report monthly sales tomorrow, and will have the comprehensive monthly report available by Friday morning.
