Posts Tagged 'hot topic (hott)'

A Tale of 2 Teen Retailers

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Tomorrow morning a bunch of major retailers are scheduled to report March sales results, and projections call for extremely strong same-store sales gains across the spectrum. The early Easter holiday, extremely weak comps from a year ago, and much warmer weather across much of the country are expected to push comps up to their best levels in years – ICSC expects a gain of 8-10%, with Thomson Reuters predicting a 6.3% composite increase.

This afternoon, two teen mall-based retailers reported results. The divergence in their performance is quite striking, and shows some retailers have yet to benefit from much improved consumer discretionary spending:

  • Zumiez reported an increase of 20.1% in net sales and a 13.2% gain in same-store sales in March, compared to a 17.9% decline a year ago. This is the fourth straight comparable sales gain after 15 consecutive months of negative same-store sales, and was the strongest growth since the fall of 2007. Men’s, Accessories, Footwear and Boys were the strongest categories for the month, while sales were strong across all geographical regions.

Zumiez - Monthly Sales Growth Continue reading ‘A Tale of 2 Teen Retailers’

Early Comp Results for January Disappointing

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Those who were expecting retailers to carry their holiday momentum into the new year might be in for a disappointment. Four companies have reported January same-store sales so far, with three of them posting results that missed analyst expectations. Retailers were focused on clearance merchandise during the month, and continue to keep inventories very lean.

  • Hot Topic reported a decrease of 11.2% in net sales and a 13.1% decline in overall same-store sales, compared to a 6.0% increase in the same period a year ago. This was the ninth consecutive month of negative comparable sales, and worse than the -12.1% analysts were expecting. Results at Torrid have been gradually improving and the chain saw a 5.7% comp gain in the month, but that was offset by a 17.4% plunge in same-store sales at Hot Topic stores.

Hot Topic - Monthly Sales Growth

Early Returns: August Same-Store Sales

Same-store sales results started to trickle in today, as drugstore retailer Walgreen and teen retailers Hot Topic and Zumiez reported August sales figures. As expected, results were mostly in-line with July, as sales tax holidays and back-to-school promotions failed to boost consumer discretionary spending.

Many retailers have commented on the fact that with Labor Day falling a week later this year, many shoppers are most likely waiting until the last minute for back-to-school deals and promotions. Also, same-store comparisons will begin to get easier in the fall as retailers will be up against comps from last year when spending really fell off the cliff. Over 30 retailers will be reporting August sales throughout the day tomorrow, and we will be posting data as it comes in.

  • Hot Topic reported a decrease of 7.0% in net sales and an 8.1% decline in overall same-store sales on top of a 2.7% decline in the same period a year ago. Torrid same-store sales were -5.7% and Hot Topic same-store sales were -8.6% for the month. Internet sales continue to outperform store results, as hotopic.com sales were down 4% and torrid.com sales increased 20% from a year ago. The company said the best performing categories for the month were men’s, music, and accessories, while women’s was by far the weakest posting a steep double digit comp decline. The best performing regions were the Southeast and Texas.

Hot Topic - Monthly Sales Growth

  • Zumiez reported a decline of 2.9% in net sales and a 12.1% decrease in same-store sales compared to a 0.2% increase in the same period last year. They have now reported 12 consecutive months as well as 6 straight quarters of negative same-store sales results. While this was the 11th straight month of double-digit comp declines, it was the least negative decline since September 2008. The company said that all departments posted negative comps during the month, and the south and west were the worst-performing geographic regions. Because Labor Day falls a week later than last year, the company expects August to be negatively impacted by later back-to-school promotions, while September will be positively affected. Because of the calendar shift, the company believes combining the August and September results and comparing to the same period last year is the best way to judge back-to-school success.

Zumiez - Monthly Sales Growth

  • Walgreen reported an increase of 6.8% in net sales and a 1.9% increase in same-store sales on top of a 0.9% gain in the year ago period. Comparable pharmacy sales increased 3.8% in August, while front-end same-store sales were down 1.3%. Though front-end sales have been relatively soft compared to pharmacy sales, the company has only reported one month of negative overall same-store sales throughout the recession, posting a 0.9% decline back in November. We expected retail drug stores to show strong demand for back-to-school supplies, but so far we have yet to see that reflected in front-end sales figures.

Walgreen - Monthly Sales Growth


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Early Returns: July Same-Store Sales

A couple of mall-based teen retailers reported same store sales results for July today, and while both companies beat consensus analyst expectations, Hot Topic and Zumiez continue to post steep year-over-year declines. Both mentioned the large impact of Labor Day falling a week later than last year – tax holidays were shifted to the first week of August from the last week of July, and companies are waiting until August for most back-to-school promotions:

  • Hot Topic reported a decrease of 6.9% in net sales and an 8.5% decline in overall July same-store sales compared to the prior period (vs. estimates of -8.9%). Torrid same-store sales were -7.6% and Hot Topic same-store sales were -8.8% for the month.  Internet sales were the one bright spot for the company in July, as hotopic.com sales were up 14% and torrid.com sales increased 37% from a year ago.  The company said the best performing categories for the month were men’s and accessories, while music and women’s both posted negative double-digit comps. They also said July was negatively affected by Labor Day falling a week later than last year, as tax holidays and their own promotions were shifted to the first week of August this year. There will be a conference call on August 19th to discuss 2nd quarter results, but Hot Topic reported that sales were down 5.3% for the quarter, while same-store sales declined 7.7%. This breaks a string of steadily improving results since Q4 ‘07.

Hot Topic - Monthly Sales Growth

Hot Topic - Quarterly Sales Growth

  • Zumiez reported a decline of 5.6% in net sales and a 16.8% decrease in same-store sales (vs. -20.8% estimates) on top of a 1.4% decline in the prior period. They have now reported 11 consecutive months as well as 5 straight quarters of negative same-store sales results.  The company said that all departments posted negative comps during the month, and the south and west were the worst-performing geographic regions.  Because Labor Day falls a week later than last year, the company expects August to be negatively impacted by later back-to-school promotions, while September will be positively affected.

Zumiez - Monthly Sales Growth


Overall, we expect consolidated July same-store sales to be down 5-5.5%, or slightly worse than the 4.7% decline in June. Apparel/accessory stores and department stores will continue to be laggards, while discount and off-price will be out-performers. We will be posting results for the 35 companies that report monthly sales tomorrow, and will have the comprehensive monthly report available by Friday morning.

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Early Peek: Teen Retail Same-Store Sales

We got an early peek into same-store sales at a couple of teen retailers today, as both Hot Topic and Zumiez reported monthly sales results for June.  Teen and mall-based retailers have been among the hardest hit over the past year, and there is not expected to be much improvement for the rest of the summer.  Retailers hope the back-to-school season will bring some reasons for optimism:

  • Hot Topic reported a decrease of 5.8% in net sales to $59.5 Million, and a 7.9% decline in overall same-store sales compared to the prior period. Torrid same-store sales were -10.3% and Hot Topic same-store sales were -7.2% for the month.  Internet sales were a bright spot for the company in June, as hotopic.com sales were up 31% and torrid.com sales increased 17% from a year ago.  The company expects a high single-digit decline in same-store sales for the quarter, as July and August sales will be impacted by the back-to-school season falling a week later than last year.  Hot Topic was a clear standout as the economy deteriorated during the fall, posting 7 consecutive months of same-store sales gains from October through April.  However, their performance over the last 2 months, as well as their guidance for this quarter, indicates that they have succombed to weak consumer spending and lost business to rivals such as Aeropostale and The Buckle.

Hot Topic - Monthly Sales Growth

  • Zumiez reported a decline of 7.9% in net sales to $32 Million, while same-store sales decreased 19.3% on top of a 3.4% decline in the year-ago period. They have now reported 10 consecutive months as well as 5 straight quarters of negative same-store sales results.  The company said that all departments posted negative comps during the month, and the south and west were the worst-performing geographic regions.  Weak comparable sales are expected to continue through July and August, hurt by labor day falling a week later than last year.  However, this late back-to-school season should have a positive effect on September sales.

Zumiez - Monthly Sales Growth


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