Posts Tagged 'e-commerce'

Chart of the Day: Best Buy vs Amazon

Over the past decade, Amazon.com has shaken up the retail world and forced traditional chains to re-think the idea of the shopping experience and what a ‘store’ is. No sector has been immune, but consumer electronics stores have been most affected as Circuit City can certainly attest to.

Yesterday’s results from Best Buy show that a combination of stiff competition and plunging tv prices continue to weigh, and have led many to claim that Best Buy is now just a showroom for Amazon. While we won’t get into that argument for now, today’s chart of the day shows that there is little doubt Amazon will overtake Best Buy in total sales sometime next year:

Amazon vs Best Buy: Comparison of Trailing 4-Quarter Revenue Growth

Retail Sales Miss the Mark in November

As we have been saying for several weeks now, the over-hyped Thanksgiving weekend results were not as strong as first reported, and the Black Friday bonanza was not enough to save an overall weak November as retail sales came in less than expected and the monthly gain was the smallest since June.

The U.S. Department of Commerce reported that Advance Estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services sales for November increased 0.2% over the prior month to a seasonally adjusted $399.35 Billion, while sales rose 6.7% compared to the year-ago period. This was the 25th straight year-over-year gain after 14 consecutive months of declines, but the 0.2% monthly gain was the weakest since June and less than the 0.6% rise analysts were expecting.

Total US Monthly Retail & Food Services Sales

For the month, only 7 of 13 categories saw growth over October: Besides Autos (+7.5% YoY, +0.5 MoM), which continue to recover off depressed levels, the only categories to show significant strength were Electronic Stores (+6.4% YoY, +2.1% MoM) and Online Retailers (+13.9% YoY, +1.5% MoM).

Click here to see detailed results by line of business.

Electronics chains were big beneficiaries of Thanksgiving weekend promotions such as flat-screen televisions for under $200, as Best Buy showed today with its Domestic same-store sales posting its first gain after 5 consecutive declines. However, those sales came at a cost as Black Friday promotions led to steep merchandise margin contraction. Continue reading ‘Retail Sales Miss the Mark in November’

Wednesday News & Notes: Shoppers Take a Break

As expected, shoppers took a break last week as the typical lull set in after a record-setting Black Friday weekend.

Weekly Retail Chain Store Sales Tracking

Redbook Research saw same-store sales growth of 3.2% for the week ending Dec 3rd, a steep drop from the 5.4% gain the prior week. Noting that this is typical of post-Thanksgiving and momentum will slowly build up as we approach Christmas, Redbook Analyst Caitlin Levis said “This shopping pattern has intensified as customers have learned to shop at the last minute to exploit merchant markdowns.”

The ICSC reported that chain store sales declined by a steep 2.7% from the prior week, but still managed to post the 2nd-strongest year-on-year growth (3.8%) in four months.

Michael Niemira, ICSC’s vice president of research and chief economist, said, “Despite the weekly dip, the year-over-year pace continues to be healthy as the overall holiday-gift completion rate jumped in the latest week compared with the same period of 2010.”

According to the ICSC‐Goldman Sachs’ consumer tracking surveys, the average percentage of holiday shopping consumers have completed (excluding those who haven’t started shopping) jumped significantly over last year reaching 56.9%, compared to just 50.1% in the same week in 2010.

This tracks similar to other surveys we’ve seen which suggest many shoppers have already completed their holiday shopping and Black Friday weekend might have pulled sales into November from December, meaning retailers will now be counting on a late December push more than ever to meet plan.

E-commerce spending, however, doesn’t seem to have seen much of a lull as comScore says total online holiday spending to date has increased 15% to nearly $20 billion. Continue reading ‘Wednesday News & Notes: Shoppers Take a Break’

Monday News & Notes

Analysts are giddy over the impossibly strong retail results over the Holiday weekend, which we summarized earlier today. A few caveats though:

Consumers are notoriously unreliable when it comes to estimating their own spending and the unofficial kick-off to the Holiday shopping season is not a very good indicator of how the rest of the period will go. Take the NRF’s report that Thursday-Sunday sales jumped 16.4% to $52.4 billion this year based on a survey sample of 3,826 consumers. This same survey projected that Black Friday weekend sales surged 18.5% in 2008 and consumers said they each spent 7.2% more than the previous year. When all was said and done, total Nov-Dec retail sales that year plunged 4.4%.

Nevertheless, all eyes now turn to “Cyber Monday” results. In case you’re wondering, this is a marketing term created by Shop.org back in 2005 so online-only retailers didn’t feel left out of the Black Friday parade. Shoppers of course have fully embraced the made-up Holiday, as last year’s haul topped $1 billion, which was the largest online selling day of the year. As of noon today, IBM says sales are up about 20% over last year and we wouldn’t be surprised to see total Monday online sales above $1.3 billion.

Just remember, we are still in the early innings and while this past weekend was strong, one-third of all holiday sales are historically made in the week prior to Christmas.


Retail Reads to Start Your Week:

  • Walmart’s Black Friday Disaster: Website Crippled, Violence In Stores (TechCrunch)
  • IPad-Crazed Toddlers Spur Holiday Sales (Bloomberg)
  • Clouds at PacSun: Retailer looking for cash as it loses its cool factor (NY Post)
  • Retail Becomes Fastest-Growing Mobile Category (eMarketer)
  • 15 Facts About McDonald’s That Will Blow Your Mind (Business Insider)
  • Cash-Strapped Americans Largely Swallow Price Hikes During Holidays (Huffington Post)
  • Kindle sales quadrupled on Black Friday over last year (Amazon)
  • Retailers tap digital tools for seamless shopper experience (Warc)
  • India finally opening its $400 billion retail industry to foreign chains (Businessweek)
  • Retailers arming staff with in-store mobile devices (WSJ)
  • How Smartphones, Price-Check Apps, and Daily Deals Are Changing the Holiday Shopping Experience (Time)
  • Black Friday Boom Masks Physical Retailers’ Desperation (Yahoo! Finance)

Black Friday Weekend Wrap: Retail Spending by the Numbers

By all indications, the Holiday shopping season got off to a robust start as a record number of consumers visited stores and made purchases online this past weekend.

However, Black Friday weekend has historically not been a very good predictor of overall Holiday retail sales. Both the National Retail Federation and ShopperTrak saw record spending over Black Friday weekend in 2008, but overall that Holiday season saw by far the worst performance on record as overall sales in the November-December period tumbled 4.4%.

Nonetheless, it appears the American consumer is still willing to spend despite severe economic headwinds and near record-low confidence. We believe chains including Best Buy, Macy’s and Walmart (despite some well-publicized issues) benefited the most from pre-midnight openings, strong merchandising and competitive price-value relationships, while not surprisingly laggards such as Sears Holdings and Gap continue their struggle to connect with shoppers.

Below is a summary of Black Friday weekend spending by the numbers. We will update these figures on Tuesday as additional metrics become available and report on Cyber Monday, which is expected to generate over $1.2 billion in e-commerce spending:

National Retail Federation (NRF):

Black Friday Weekend Retail Shopping Estimates

  • department stores continue to be the most popular shopping destination (48.7%), followed by discount stores (37.5%), the internet (35.2%), electronics stores (30.8%), clothing/accessories stores (24.6%) and grocery stores (23.8%)
  • avg male spent $484.24 vs $317.19 per avg female, with average male spending nearly twice as much ($201.62 vs $101.93) online
  • those making more than $50k spent nearly 80% more ($493.31) vs those making less than $50k ($274.27) and well more than twice as much ($202.91 vs $87.97) online

“Stuffed to the brim from their holiday meals and eager to shop, more consumers than ever turned out for retailers’ Black Friday promotions, a promising sign for the economic recovery,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. “After an historic holiday weekend Continue reading ‘Black Friday Weekend Wrap: Retail Spending by the Numbers’

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