Posts Tagged 'department stores'

Quick View: Two Contrasting Retail Turnaround Stories

This weekend, the New York Times ran an interesting piece about Richard Baker, the wealthy real estate investor-turned retail executive who bought Lord & Taylor and Hudson’s Bay in 2006:

If Mr. Baker sounds like a rich kid playing with his new toys, well, that’s because he is a rich kid playing with his new toys. Only the toys happen to be two of the oldest department store chains in North America: Lord & Taylor, the grande dame that used to anchor the Ladies’ Mile in Manhattan, and the Hudson’s Bay Company of Canada, which traces its roots back to the 17th-century fur trade.

How Mr. Baker, 45, came to own these baubles is a story for our financial times. He’s not exactly a self-made man. His father, Robert C. Baker, owns a giant shopping mall development company. But in 2006, just before the recession, the younger Mr. Baker took a flier and bought Lord & Taylor, and later the Hudson’s Bay Company, putting down almost no money and borrowing more than $1 billion to finance the deals. Just about everyone in retailing wrote him off. Many whispered that he would get hammered, like several investment hotshots who set their sights on this business.

But a funny thing happened on the way to the comeuppance. It turns out that Mr. Baker wasn’t so bad at running department stores. In 2010, sales at Lord & Taylor’s 46 stores rose 12.2 percent from the previous year, and are now higher than they were before the recession bit. And Hudson Bay’s flagship Bay stores posted their first increase in same-store sales in a decade. Earnings at the combined companies totaled $450 million last year, before taxes, up from $330 million in 2009.

In January, Mr. Baker solved the company’s debt problem, striking a complex deal to sell the rights to leases on an underperforming division of the Hudson’s Bay Company to Target for about $1.8 billion. There are discussions about an initial public offering of the combined companies as soon as this fall.

“Richard shocked everybody,” says Matthew E. Rubel, the chief executive of Collective Brands, which runs businesses like Payless ShoeSource.

If the story sounds a little familiar, that’s because it’s not that different from that of how Sears Holdings Co. came to be. A successful investor with little retailing experience (Eddie Lampert) merged two storied retailers (Sears, Roebuck & Co. & Kmart) with the hopes of leveraging its vast real estate portfolio. However, that’s where the similarities end. Continue reading ‘Quick View: Two Contrasting Retail Turnaround Stories’

U.S. Retail Sales Disappoint in December

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This morning, the U.S. Department of Commerce reported that Advance Estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services sales for December fell 0.3% from the prior month to $353.0 Billion, while sales increased 5.4% compared to the year-ago period. This is the second straight year-over-year gain after 14 consecutive months of declines, the longest such streak on record. To put this into perspective, consider that in the previous 15+ years, from January 1993 through August 2008, there were a total of only 2 months in which YoY decreases were reported.

Total US Monthly Retail & Food Services Sales - Long Term

While the gain certainly looks impressive at first glance, it’s more representative of the extremely easy comparison from last December, when overall sales tumbled 11.0%. For the month, Gasoline Stations (+33.6% YoY / +1.0% MoM) and Nonstore retailers (+10.3% YoY / +1.4% MoM) were among the strongest gainers. Total sales excluding Autos were up 5.2% from last year, while total sales less Autos and Gas Stations showed a 2.3% year-on-year gain. Continue reading ‘U.S. Retail Sales Disappoint in December’

August U.S. Retail Sales Post Biggest Monthly Gain Since Jan ’06

Boosted by the government’s “cash-for-clunkers” program, retail sales rebounded in August posting its largest monthly increase since January 2006. The U.S. Census Bureau reported today that Advance Estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services sales for August increased 2.7% from the prior month to $351.4 Billion. Excluding automobiles, retail and food services sales increased 1.1% from July, the best showing since January of this year.

Monthly US Retail Sales - Total Retail & Food Services (MoM)

Auto sales enjoyed their best month in nearly 8 years, increasing 11.9% from July and just slightly down from a year ago. While there will certainly be a drop-off in September after the expiration of the clunkers program, automakers are trying to cushion the fall with a heavy dose of cash rebates and creative warranties, i.e. money-back guarantees for car buyers who lose their jobs. This sounds like business as usual for the struggling car-makers – sacrificing profits and margins to drive short-term sales.

Monthly US Retail Sales - Auto & Other Motor Vehicles MoM & YoY

While the monthly gains were impressive, sales are still down 5.3% from the year ago period (-6.2% ex autos). Those YoY figures will start to improve dramatically heading into the end of this year regardless of performance, as retailers will be up against comps from last fall when sales fell off a cliff:

Monthly US Retail Sales - Total Retail & Food Services (YoY) LT

Also, we suspect seasonal adjustments played a role in the monthly gains. Based on results from individual retailers who reported August sales earlier this month, it’s apparent that apparel and department store retailers continue to struggle. However, the government report shows both of those sectors posting a 2.4% increase in sales from the prior month, with substantial improvements in YoY figures. We expect there will be downward revisions when next month’s report is released.

As stock prices have risen and consumers’ future expectations of the economy have started to improve, shoppers are becoming a little less cautious about their spending. However, we won’t see a substantial pick-up in demand until the employment and income situation improves. Year-over-year figures should start to show gains starting in October, as comparisons will be up against the post-Lehman bankruptcy period last year.

Click here to see detailed results by type of business.

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July 2009 Same-Store Sales Results

Over 30 retailers reported monthly sales results for July this morning. We are still waiting for results from Pricesmart, but RetailSails projects total consolidated same-store sales declined 4.6% in July for the 33 retailers we track, which is slightly better than the 5-5.5% drop we were expecting, and roughly in-line with the 4.7% decrease in June. This is the 11th straight months of same-store sales declines. More retailers posted results which trailed analyst estimates than beat, and once again only a handful of companies posted positive year-over year comps – Aeropostale, Buckle, Ross Stores, TJX, Kohl’s, and Walgreen. We will be updating individual company details shortly, and the comprehensive monthly report will be available by tommorow morning at the latest.

Consolidated Monthly Retail Sales - July 2009


Apparel & Accessories Stores:

Company Net Sales Net Sales Chg Same-Store Sales Chg
Abercrombie & Fitch $236.0 Million -22.0% -28.0%
Aeropostale $156.8 Million 13.0% 6.0%
American Apparel N/A N/A -13.0%
American Eagle Outfitters $215.0 Million -8.0% -11.0%
Buckle $61.5 Million 7.9% 2.8%
Cato $60.4 Million -3.0% -3.0%
Children’s Place $102.1 Million -3.0% -4.0%
Destination Maternity $38.5 Million -8.4% -8.3%
Gap $924.0 Million -7.0% -8.0%
Hot Topic $52.3 Million -6.9% -8.5%
Limited Brands $556.2 Million -7.5% -7.0%
Stage Stores $97.0 Million -10.1% -11.9%
Stein Mart $73.3 Million -9.0% -5.5%
Wet Seal $42.7 Million -8.0% -12.1%
Zumiez $29.9 Million -5.6% -16.8%


Department Stores:

Company Net Sales Net Sales Chg Same-Store Sales Chg
Bon-Ton $178.8 Million -9.6% -9.8%
Dillards $439.1 Million -15.0% -12.0%
JC Penney $1.194 Billion -10.6% -12.3%
Kohl’s $1.080 Billion 5.2% 0.4%
Macy’s $1.377 Billion -10.7% -10.7%
Neiman Marcus $199.0 Million -25.8% -27.3%
Nordstrom $806 Million -4.1% -6.9%
Saks $159.7 Million -14.9% -16.3%


Discount & Variety Stores:

Company Net Sales Net Sales Chg Same-Store Sales Chg
BJ’s Wholesale $722.6 Million -6.3% -9.1%
Costco $5.41 Billion -5.0% -7.0%
Duckwall-ALCO $33.0 Million -3.2% -4.3%
Fred’s $124.4 Million -4.0% -4.6%
Pricesmart N/A N/A N/A
Ross Stores $538.0 Million 8.0% 4.0%
Target $4.418 Billion -3.2% -6.5%
TJX Companies $1.42 Billion 5.0% 4.0%


Drug Stores:

Company Net Sales Net Sales Chg Same-Store Sales Chg
Rite Aid $1.929 Billion -2.4% -0.6%
Walgreen $5.257 Billion 7.3% 2.0%


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