Posts Tagged 'consumer sentiment'

Consumer Sentiment Dips in Early January

Share/Save/BookmarkConsumer confidence dipped in early January, as rising gas prices overshadowed an improved job outlook and passage of temporary federal tax breaks. The preliminary reading of the Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 72.7 in January, down from 74.5 in December and 74.4 in January 2010.

Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment

Consumers’ current view of the economy was negatively affected by gas prices hitting the $3 mark, as the surveys’ barometer of current economic conditions was 79.8 in early January, down sharply from 85.3 in December and below the 81.1 reading last January.

However, consumers are more optimistic about the future economic outlook. The 12-month economic outlook index jumped to 87, which was the highest since September 2009, and the survey’s gauge of consumer expectations rose to 68.2 from 67.5 in December.

In addition, just 21 percent of consumers surveyed expected the unemployment rate to increase in the year ahead, the lowest figure recorded in 10 years.

“The stronger performance of the economy was expected to be reflected in the near term by more favorable expected changes in employment,” Richard Curtin, director of surveys of consumers from Thomson Reuters and University of Michigan, said in a statement.

Components of the Index of Consumer Sentiment

Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment
Jan’ 11 Dec’ 10 Jan’ 10 Dec’ 09 M/M Chg Y/Y Chg
Consumer Sentiment 72.7 74.5 74.4 72.5 -2.4% -2.3%
Current Conditions 68.2 67.5 70.1 68.9 1.0% -2.7%
Consumer Expectations 79.8 85.3 81.1 78.0 -6.4% -1.6%
source: Reuters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers

Consumer Sentiment Creeps Up, but Personal Finances Remain Dismal

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Consumer confidence increased in December to its best level since June as improved expectations for the job market as well as recent passage of tax legislation helped to offset consumers’ grim view of their own personal finances.

Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment

The Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 74.5 in December, up from 71.6 in November and 67.7 in October. Consumers have a much rosier view of the current state of the economy, as the Current Conditions Index stands at 85.3, up from 82.1 in November and 9.4% higher than a year ago.

Surveys of Consumers chief economist, Richard Curtin, said “The best holiday gift to consumers was news that job gains were on the horizon.”


Components of the Index of Consumer Sentiment

Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment
Dec’ 10 Nov’ 10 Dec’ 09 Nov’ 09 M/M Chg Y/Y Chg
Consumer Sentiment 74.5 71.6 72.5 67.4 4.1% 2.8%
Current Conditions 67.5 64.8 68.9 66.5 4.2% -2.0%
Consumer Expectations 85.3 82.1 78 68.8 3.9% 9.4%
source: Reuters/University of Michigan Survey of Consumers

However, consumers’ view of their personal financial prospects remain dismal. The Expectations Index rose to 67.5 from 64.8 in November, but remains 2% below levels from a year ago:

  • Just 23% reported recent gains in their finances, unchanged from last December, as twice as many consumers reported income declines as income advances
  • Just one-in-four consumers expected their finances to improve in the year ahead, which has remained unchanged for the past six months
  • The majority of consumers anticipated no income increases during the year ahead, as they have for a record 24 consecutive months

Curtin noted “Compared with the more favorable prospects for the overall economy, consumers have maintained a very cautious outlook for their own finances. They have good cause to be cautious. This was the second time in 2010 that news of job gains prompted a rally in confidence. Indeed, consumers voiced nearly the same confidence at the end of 2010 as at the start of the year.”

Retail Sales Post 5th Straight Gain, Strong Across the Board

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The U.S. Department of Commerce released March retail sales this morning, reporting that sales rose an adjusted 1.6% from February and surged 10.0% (unadjusted) from the year-ago period, the largest year-over-year increase since March 2000. This was the fifth consecutive gain after 15 straight monthly declines:

Total US Monthly Retail & Food Services Sales

However, the extremely strong gains are deceiving as results are being compared to very depressed levels from a year ago, when overall sales tumbled 8.4%, 11.6%, and 10.6% in January, February, and March respectively. In addition, much warmer and drier weather after a dismal February, as well as Easter falling a week earlier this year certainly played a part in this month’s strength.

Total sales for the month were still down 1.6% from both March 2008 and 2007. Year-to-date, total sales are 5.8% higher than last year, but still down 5.0% and 1.7% from 2008 and 2007 respectively. To put in perspective how absolutely dismal 2009 was, consider that in the previous 15+ years, from January 1993 through August 2008, there were a total of only 3 months in which YoY decreases were reported: Continue reading ‘Retail Sales Post 5th Straight Gain, Strong Across the Board’

Retail Sales Post 4th Consecutive Gain in February

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The U.S. Department of Commerce released February retail sales this morning, reporting that sales rose an adjusted 0.3% from January and increased 4.1% (unadjusted) from the year-ago period. Analysts had expected the unseasonably cold weather and severe snowstorms across the East Coast to impact performance, but it appears spending held up relatively well. This was the fourth consecutive year-on-year gain after 15 straight monthly declines:

Total US Monthly Retail & Food Services Sales

However, the gains are more representative of the extremely easy comparisons from last winter, when overall sales tumbled 8.8%, 8.4%, and 11.6% in December, January, and February respectively. Total sales for the month were still down 8.0% from February 2008 and 1.9% from February 2007. To put in perspective how absolutely dismal 2009 was, consider that in the previous 15+ years, from January 1993 through August 2008, there were a total of only 2 months in which YoY decreases were reported: Continue reading ‘Retail Sales Post 4th Consecutive Gain in February’

Consumer Sentiment Little Changed in Early January

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Consumer sentiment in the U.S. held relatively steady in early January, as views of an improving economy and rising stock prices were offset by worries over personal finances, unemployment, and inflation. The Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment rose slightly to 72.8 from 72.5 in late December.

Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment

The Current Conditions Index rose to 81.0 in January from 78.0 last month, its highest level since March of 2008. However, this was offset by a drop in the Consumer Expectations Index which has been stagnant since May of 2009, from 68.9 in December to 67.5. Continue reading ‘Consumer Sentiment Little Changed in Early January’

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