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Posts Tagged 'consumer sentiment'

Retail Sales Post 5th Straight Gain, Strong Across the Board

Published April 14, 2010 Uncategorized Leave a Comment
Tags: consumer sentiment, consumer spending, retail sales, us department of commerce

The U.S. Department of Commerce released March retail sales this morning, reporting that sales rose an adjusted 1.6% from February and surged 10.0% (unadjusted) from the year-ago period, the largest year-over-year increase since March 2000. This was the fifth consecutive gain after 15 straight monthly declines:

However, the extremely strong gains are deceiving as results are being compared to very depressed levels from a year ago, when overall sales tumbled 8.4%, 11.6%, and 10.6% in January, February, and March respectively. In addition, much warmer and drier weather after a dismal February, as well as Easter falling a week earlier this year certainly played a part in this month’s strength.

Total sales for the month were still down 1.6% from both March 2008 and 2007. Year-to-date, total sales are 5.8% higher than last year, but still down 5.0% and 1.7% from 2008 and 2007 respectively. To put in perspective how absolutely dismal 2009 was, consider that in the previous 15+ years, from January 1993 through August 2008, there were a total of only 3 months in which YoY decreases were reported: Continue reading ‘Retail Sales Post 5th Straight Gain, Strong Across the Board’

Retail Sales Post 4th Consecutive Gain in February

Published March 12, 2010 Uncategorized Leave a Comment
Tags: consumer sentiment, consumer spending, retail sales, us department of commerce

The U.S. Department of Commerce released February retail sales this morning, reporting that sales rose an adjusted 0.3% from January and increased 4.1% (unadjusted) from the year-ago period. Analysts had expected the unseasonably cold weather and severe snowstorms across the East Coast to impact performance, but it appears spending held up relatively well. This was the fourth consecutive year-on-year gain after 15 straight monthly declines:

However, the gains are more representative of the extremely easy comparisons from last winter, when overall sales tumbled 8.8%, 8.4%, and 11.6% in December, January, and February respectively. Total sales for the month were still down 8.0% from February 2008 and 1.9% from February 2007. To put in perspective how absolutely dismal 2009 was, consider that in the previous 15+ years, from January 1993 through August 2008, there were a total of only 2 months in which YoY decreases were reported: Continue reading ‘Retail Sales Post 4th Consecutive Gain in February’

Consumer Sentiment Little Changed in Early January

Published January 15, 2010 Uncategorized Leave a Comment
Tags: consumer sentiment, consumer spending, reuters/university of michigan

Consumer sentiment in the U.S. held relatively steady in early January, as views of an improving economy and rising stock prices were offset by worries over personal finances, unemployment, and inflation. The Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment rose slightly to 72.8 from 72.5 in late December.

Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment

The Current Conditions Index rose to 81.0 in January from 78.0 last month, its highest level since March of 2008. However, this was offset by a drop in the Consumer Expectations Index which has been stagnant since May of 2009, from 68.9 in December to 67.5. Continue reading ‘Consumer Sentiment Little Changed in Early January’

Consumer Sentiment Improves, But Strong Headwinds Remain

Published December 23, 2009 Uncategorized Leave a Comment
Tags: consumer sentiment, consumer spending

Confidence improved in December as consumers are feeling slightly better about expectations for economic growth and employment. However, the gains are tenuous as personal finances are still being described as “dismal”. The Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment rose to 72.5 in December from 67.4 a month ago. While the index sits near the top of its two-year range, it still remains well below the 10-year average and below the 73.5 print we saw in September.

Reuters/University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment

Consumers’ views of their current finances have improved somewhat – 49% reported a worsening financial situation this month compared to 57% a year ago – but just one-in-seven expect any inflation-adjusted income gains during the year ahead. The largest factor in the index improvement was deep discounting on a wide range of household goods by merchants trying to spur holiday sales, which more consumers cited than ever before in the 60-year history of the survey. The Current Conditions Index rose to 78.0 from 68.8 for the month, the highest level since March 2008. Continue reading ‘Consumer Sentiment Improves, But Strong Headwinds Remain’

For Consumers, it’s all a Confidence Game

Published September 11, 2009 Uncategorized Leave a Comment
Tags: consumer confidence, consumer sentiment, reuters/university of michigan

As the U.S. equity markets set new highs for the year, consumer confidence continues to show signs of stabilization. The Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said its preliminary index of consumer sentiment for September rose to 70.2, the highest since June, from 65.7 in August. This was above estimates expecting a reading of 67.3, and roughly back to the level of September 2008, which was 70.3.

Reuters-University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment 10 Yr

The Current Economic Conditions Index rose to 71.8, up from 66.6 in August and 75.0 last September. The Index of Consumer Expectations, a closely watched component of the Index of Leading Economic Indicators, was 69.2, up from 65.0 in August and above the 67.2 recorded last September.

Within the survey, the 12-month economic outlook index rose to 79, the highest since September 2007, from 69 in August. The 1-year inflation expectation eased to 2.6, the lowest since March, and down from 2.8 in August.

Reuters-University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment Components 10 Yr

“Confidence rebounded in early September as consumers increasingly expected the economy to improve despite their reluctant conclusion that their own financial situation would remain quite problematic for some time,” the Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said in a statement.

Because of unemployment worries and lack of income gains, improved confidence has yet to translate into increased spending. If we look at results from the consumer survey going back over 50 years, we see that confidence remains at extremely low levels. Though we appear to be emerging from the longest post-war recession, now entering its 22nd month, consumers have a long way to go before they will be comfortable spending again.

Reuters-University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment LT