Posts Tagged 'american eagle outfitters (aeo)'

Teen Retail Throwdown: Battle for the Cool Kids

Share/Save/BookmarkAs retail M&A activity has picked up in recent months, there has been no shortage of speculation around who the next target will be. Many suggest teen retailers Abercombie & Fitch, American Eagle Outfitters and Aeropostale are attractive buyout candidates.

These three chains have a lot in common: they compete for the same demographic through roughly the same number of mall-based stores, have very healthy balance sheets, and all stopped reporting monthly sales after January 2011.

However, there are some major differences: Abercrombie enjoys the most pricing power, with gross margins nearly double that of its rivals, as well as generating the highest percentage of sales from International operations (18.6%). American Eagle has been touted as the biggest bargain among the three, as it trades at 10.2 times free cash flow, the cheapest among U.S. retailers that sell clothes to teenagers, and holds the most cash relative to its market value. Aeropostale has been the strongest and most consistent performer over the past decade and significantly outperformed its rivals throughout the recession.

All three recently reported fiscal 2010 results, and below we take a look at their operating performance for last year as well as over the long-term to determine who deserves the crown as the king of teen retail.

Teen Retailer Comparison: Abercrombie & Fitch, American Eagle Outfitters, Aeropostale

Can Abercrombie & Fitch Find its Mojo Again?

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Once the darling of the teen retail scene, Abercrombie & Fitch has fallen on hard times since the start of the recession. Missteps including fashion flops and their refusal to markdown prices have driven U.S. consumers to lower-priced rivals American Eagle Outfitters and especially Aeropostale. The company has acknowledged its past mistakes and is working to address the problems, but A&F still has a long way to go before it regains the title as king of teen retail.

In the fourth quarter of 2009, Abercrombie said total sales decreased 4.6% to $936 million, while same-store sales dropped 13%. This was the 9th consecutive quarter of same-store sales declines, and came on top of last year’s Q4 which saw comparable sales plunge 25%. Net income declined 30% to $47.5 million ($0.53 diluted eps) from a year ago and was down 78% from the 4th quarter of 2007.

Abercrombie & Fitch - Quarterly Sales Growth Continue reading ‘Can Abercrombie & Fitch Find its Mojo Again?’

Aeropostale: Firing on all Cylinders

Even in the best of economic times, Aeropostale’s performance over the last 18 months would be considered impressive.  When you take into account the fact they were posting these results in the worst retail environment in decades, it becomes that much more unbelievable: they have posted positive same-store sales results in 21 of the last 22 months, and for 7 consecutive quarters:


Aeropostale Monthly Sales Change

Aeropostale Quarterly Sales Change


The company has been the clear standout among teen retailers, as rivals Abercrombie & Fitch and American Eagle Outfitters have struggled to retain brand loyalty – both have posted negative same-store sales results for 13 consecutive months and 6 consecutive quarters.  As a matter of fact, besides stellar performer The Buckle, you would be hard-pressed to find a better performing company than Aeropostale, not just in the teen retail or apparel segments, but in the whole retail industry.  And this is not just a recent phenomenon:


Aeropostale Financial Snapshot1


So what’s their secret?  Well, actually it’s no secret at all – top executives have been very open about their formula, both in interviews and on conference calls.  The core idea is to give shoppers what they want at prices they can afford – Aeropostale doesn’t consider themselves a trend-setter, but rather a fashion follower.  Instead of worrying about what’s on the shelves of their competitors, they look at what’s on the backs of their target consumers.  As CEO Julian Geiger put it:

“We genuinely listen to our customers and give them what they want more so than our competitors. We do not superimpose on them what we think they should wear. They tell us what they want to wear.”

Price and promotion have been extremely important as well.  While Geiger credits a the recent success to a focus on fashion rather than an obsession on price, luring frugal shoppers certainly hasn’t hurt.  The company’s price point is about 50% less than Abercrombie and 30% less than American Eagle.  They perfected their promotional merchandising strategy long before the recession hit, with pre-planned sales signs and two-for-one deals throughout the stores.  However, besides 4th quarter mark-downs late last year, they have been able to expand gross margins in 10 out of the last 11 quarters:


Aeropostale Quarterly Gross Margin Change



The company is not resting on its laurels, either.  At a time when most retailers are shutting brands and scaling back growth plans, such as Abercrombie’s RUEHL, Aeropostale is launching a new brand – PS – aimed at the tween market.  While the Aeropostale brand is fairly narrowly targeted to the 14-17 yr old demographic, PS will cater to 7-12 yr old kids.  With plans to open 9-10 stores this year as well as an e-commerce site, PS hopes to capture a piece of the estimated $14 Billion tween market, with the goal of eventually opening up to 500 stores.

While store sales growth has been exceptional, e-commerce growth is the channel that could really drive growth in the future.  While the company didn’t launch online operations until late 2005, they posted internet sales of $79.1 Million in fiscal 2008, which was 85% higher than the prior year.  This will be an important outlet not only for growth but for reaching customers more directly through promotional and direct marketing campaigns.  One example is the “Teens for Jeans” charity project launched earlier this year, where over 200,000 teen customers donated “gently used” jeans to their homeless peers.  Campaigns such as this not only boost the company’s profile, but provide better viral publicity than advertising ever could.

Past performance doesn’t guarantee future success, and the company realizes there is a long line of faded teen retail stars and customers’ tastes can change overnight.  They are among the most diligent users of market research, and have leveraged the internet to communicate directly with their best customers to solicit feedback on new styles.  With the wind at their back, look for the company to continue to succeed no matter what the environment.

“You really have to look back in time. Nothing in retail happens quickly. We have been willing to look at ourselves and realize what we like about ourselves and what we don’t and make appropriate changes. It’s about a balance of assortment and store design. What you see now is the cumulative affects of adding fashion merchandise to our assortment, while maintaining a promotional stance.” – Aeropostale CEO Julian Geiger, interview with TheStreet.com in May 2009

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What Ever Happened to the Gap?

You remember when the Gap was hip and innovative?  They made khakis and basic tees cool.  Banana Republic made preppy cool.  Old Navy made you want to wear board shorts and flip flops with annoying commercials you couldn’t get out of your head.  Somewhere along the line they lost their way – while almost all retailers are struggling in an extremely tough environment, the Gap seems to have missed out on the bubble-induced spending orgy altogether.  With Q1 results in, they have now reported 19 consecutive quarters of negative same-store sales growth:

gps_qsss

Management would like to have you believe that this performance isn’t too shabby considering the state of the consumer and compared to the results of their competitors:

“The market conditions, from our perspective, continue to be challenging. With that said, I think our performance in Q1 was respectable. None of us like to produce results in the quarter below last year. I don’t think any business would ever want to produce results below last year but with the conditions in which we are operating in, I think it was respectable and versus a lot of our competitors, I was pleased with our performance in the first quarter.”

If we look at their recent sales performance against a couple of the competitors we talked about last week, minus Aeropostale since they are a clear out-performer, this statement seems to hold up:

teen_comp_msss2

However, if we look back a little further, you can see that the idea that their performance is a result of economic conditions becomes a little hard to believe.  I wonder what their excuse was back in 2005 & 2006:

teen_comp_qsss3

This is not a recent phenomenon – growth has been stagnant for quite awhile now:

teen_comp_snap2

With improving consumer sentiment, there is hope that overall retail sales are in a bottoming process.  In April, Old Navy reported its first positive same-store sales results in over 2 years.  However, if we look at same-store sales by brand we can see it will be at least a few months before this is any reason to cheer:

gps_msss_bb

The one consistent bright spot for the company has been their direct-to-consumer business, which surpassed $1 Billion in total sales for 2008.  Gap was an early entrant into the online channel, and have more than doubled their direct sales since 2003:

gps_dtc_annual

While Gap certainly has had some struggles over the past few years, they also have a pristine balance sheet with almost no debt and about $1.8 Billion of cash.  However, in an extremely tough retail environment with intense competition, there will need to be drastic change to return to the days when we’re all humming Old Navy tunes in our heads…

A Comparison of 3 Teen Retailers

With 1st Quarter earnings season coming to an end, it’s becoming quite clear that not all retailers should be painted with the same brush.  Taking a look at 3 apparel retailers targeting young men & women, we can see that some retailers have not only held up better than others, but have been able to thrive in an extremely tough environment.  Here is a snapshot of Abercrombie & Fitch, American Eagle Outfitters, and Aeropostale:

teen_comp_snap

While they are the smallest of the three, Aeropostale has shown stronger top line growth throughout the decade.  More impressive has been their strong same-store sales performance over the past 18 months:

teen_comp_msss

teen_comp_qsss

Abercrombie & Fitch has struggled the most as they were hesitant to cut prices in order to “protect the brand.”  Some comments from the Q1 conference call tell the story:

The first quarter was clearly a difficult one for us with the challenging economic environment, we continue to face a headwind where the consumer is reluctant to spend on premium brands. There is a price consciousness dictating shoppers’ purchases today, unlike anything I have seen before.

We are actively planning for meaningful reductions in our average unit retails, while remaining committed to protecting our initial mark-up percentage and providing quality product.

As cost-cutting continues for the rest of 2009, the growth in store openings will likely slow as it has already started to level off over the past 6 months:

teen_comp_tsc

Aeropostale has also outperformed on a sales per average square foot basis throughout the years:

teen_comp_spsf

As the least expensive of the 3 premium brands, Aerpostale has been able to not only outperform relative to their peers, but continue to post record top and bottom line results in the toughest retail environment in decades.  They also got a late start on their e-commerce business, and while online sales in 2008 showed growth of 85% over the prior year, that channel still makes up only 4.2% of total sales.


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