Monthly Sales Summary

Monthly Retail Chain Store Sales Summary: January 2012

Most retailers saw strong sales in January, which is typically the lightest-volume month and caps off the fiscal year for the majority of chains. Business was driven by gift card redemptions and stores were focused on clearance sales to make room for spring lines and enter the new year with clean inventories. Though warmer weather helped foot traffic, sales of cold-weather gear were once again held back as last month was the 3rd-warmest January in 50 years.

Total net sales for the 22 chains we track (JC Penney no longer reports monthly sales) increased 4.0% from a year ago to $26.893 billion in January, while same-store sales rose 2.9% on top of a 5.4% gain last year – this was the 29th straight monthly gain after 12 consecutive months of declines. However, it was a month of winners and losers as only 12 of 22 chains reported comp gains for the month compared to 19 last January, with 59% of chains beating analyst estimates. Total fiscal year (February-January) sales increased 6.7% to $391.2 billion and comparable store sales rose 4.8% following a 3.8% increase in 2010.

Standouts during the month included pretty much the same names we have seen out-perform all year, with Costco (+8%), off-price stores TJX (+8%) & Ross Stores (+5%), The Buckle (+7.4%), Limited Brands(+9%), Saks (+10.5%) and Zumiez (+10.8%) all once again out-pacing estimates.

Because January and February are such light-volume months and chains are focused on clearing inventory and rolling out Spring lines, we will be much more focused on margins and outlooks for the first quarter. Though much warmer than average weather forced many department stores and apparel chains to slash priced 70-80% on winter gear, tight inventory management helped many to raise estimates even in the face of continued weak sales. Ross Stores, TJX, Kohl’s (+0.6%), Macy’s (2.4%) and even The Gap (-4%) all raised 4th quarter earning guidance.

Laggards in January included all the usual suspects with notable weakness at Wet Seal (-13.0%), Stein Mart (-3.9%), Cato (-6%) and Bon-Ton (-3.5%).

Other chains which struggled to get shoppers to pay full price were Abercrombie & Fitch and Ann Taylor (-3.5%). Though these chains don’t report monthly sales anymore, they both said holiday results were underwhelming and lowered earnings guidance.

Every consumer confidence index we follow has shown dramatic improvement over the last 6 months as Americans are finally starting to see improvement in the labor market and the overall economy. However, as commentary from this morning’s Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index release shows, significant doubts remain about the sustainability of these gains: “Rising incomes and aggressive discounting by retailers likely created a better buying climate and bolstered consumer confidence to close out January,” said Joseph Brusuelas, a senior economist at Bloomberg LP in New York. “That being said, the increase in the cost of gasoline and the most tenuous of gains in the labor market does place the improvement in confidence in jeopardy.”

Following a relative splurge over the holiday season, consumers will most likely pull back over the next few months as they look to rebuild their savings amid earnings gains. Based on government reports, retail sales showed spending lost momentum each month in the fourth quarter and with consumer spending rising 2.2% in 2011 after advancing 2% in 2010, it marked the weakest two-year performance of any expansion since World War II.

February will be an event-driven month with the Super Bowl, Valentine’s Day and President’s Day driving most business while chains will continue the roll-out of spring wares.

RetailSails Monthly Retail Chain Store Sales

	Same-Store Sales Chg (YoY)
	Jan-12	Dec-11	Nov-11	Jan-11	Dec-10	Nov-10
Apparel & Accessories Stores	4.3%	4.9%	2.1%	7.2%	2.0%	5.4%
Department Stores	2.2%	4.2%	1.1%	3.0%	4.8%	5.8%
Drug Stores	-2.9%	1.3%	1.8%	4.9%	2.3%	1.9%
Discount & Variety Stores	6.4%	4.2%	5.7%	5.9%	3.3%	7.3%
Total Same-Store Sales Chg	2.9%	3.8%	3.3%	5.4%	3.2%	5.4%
Total Net Sales Chg	4.0%	6.1%	4.3%	7.9%	5.6%	7.7%

click on company name below for detailed monthly performance data

January Chain Store Sales Scorecard			Same-Store Sales Chg
Company/Segment	Sales (1,000′s)	YoY Chg	Jan-12	Jan-11	FY-11	FY-10
Bon-Ton	$ 174,400	-3.2%	-3.5%	0.3%	-2.8%	0.9%
The Buckle	$ 60,300	10.8%	7.4%	4.3%	8.4%	1.2%
Cato	$ 50,500	-2.7%	-6.0%	-4.0%	-1.0%	3.0%
Costco	$ 7,000,000	11.1%	8.0%	9.0%	10.5%	7.5%
excluding gas & f/x			8.0%	6.0%	7.1%	4.4%
Dillards	$ 363,549	-3.3%	0.0%	6.0%	4.0%	3.0%
Duckwall-ALCO	$ 28,700	2.1%	-1.1%	-1.9%	3.2%	-2.4%
Fred’s	$ 132,400	2.6%	-0.8%	2.1%	0.5%	2.2%
Gap	$ 833,000	-1.2%	-4.0%	3.0%	-4.0%	2.0%
Gap North Am			-5.0%	2.0%	-4.0%	0.0%
Banana Republic NA			6.0%	5.0%	-1.0%	3.0%
Old Navy NA			-6.0%	0.0%	-3.0%	3.0%
International			-10.0%	9.0%	-7.0%	2.0%
Kohl’s	$ 844,000	2.3%	0.6%	1.4%	0.5%	4.4%
Limited Brands	$ 774,500	0.2%	9.0%	24.0%	10.0%	9.0%
Bath & Body Works			-3.0%	9.0%	6.0%	5.0%
Victoria’s Secret			17.0%	35.0%	14.0%	14.0%
VS Direct			3.0%	5.0%	4.0%	8.0%
La Senza			-8.0%	8.0%	-2.0%	-1.0%
Macy’s	$ 1,336,000	2.0%	2.4%	2.6%	5.3%	4.6%
Nordstrom	$ 688,000	13.3%	5.0%	4.8%	7.2%	8.1%
Full-Line & Direct			5.3%	4.8%	8.2%	9.3%
Rack Stores			1.3%	0.3%	3.7%	0.7%
Rite Aid	$ 1,923,000	1.7%	2.2%	1.1%	1.8%	-1.1%
Front End			2.7%	2.2%	1.1%	-0.6%
Pharmacy			2.1%	0.6%	2.2%	-1.3%
Ross Stores	$ 483,000	9.5%	5.0%	3.0%	5.0%	5.0%
Saks	$ 175,600	7.3%	10.5%	4.4%	9.5%	6.4%
Stage Stores	$ 73,800	2.5%	-0.1%	5.1%	0.5%	0.2%
Stein Mart	$ 60,100	-4.3%	-3.9%	-1.2%	-1.1%	-1.8%
Target	$ 4,608,000	5.1%	4.3%	1.7%	3.0%	2.1%
TJX	$ 1,420,000	5.2%	7.0%	2.0%	4.0%	4.0%
Walgreen	$ 5,800,000	-2.2%	-4.6%	6.1%	2.6%	1.5%
Front End		2.7%	1.6%	4.5%	3.3%	1.2%
Pharmacy		-6.0%	-7.9%	6.9%	2.3%	1.8%
Wet Seal	$ 32,400	-8.5%	-13.0%	6.2%	1.5%	0.1%
Wet Seal	$ 27,300	-8.1%	-13.0%	6.6%	2.3%	0.0%
Arden B	$ 5,100	-8.7%	-12.7%	3.7%	-3.0%	0.6%
Zumiez	$ 31,800	19.1%	10.8%	15.3%	8.7%	11.9%

Total Stores	$ 26,893,049	4.0%	2.9%	5.4%	4.8%	3.8%