RetailSails

Americans To Pull Out All The Stops This Valentine’s Day (NRF)
The National Retail Federation’s 2012 Valentine’s Day Consumer Intentions and Actions Survey projects total Valentine’s Day sales will rise 11.8% this year to nearly $17.6 billion, with the average consumer spending $126.03 or 8.5% more than 2011.

“As one of the biggest gift-giving holidays of the year, it’s encouraging that consumers are still exhibiting the desire to spend on discretionary gift items, a strong indication our economy continues to move in the right direction,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. “Anticipating high foot traffic in the coming weeks, retailers have replenished their inventories and will entice eager shoppers with great deals on everything from special menu items at restaurants to clothing to flowers and, of course, chocolates.”

Online shoppers to treat loved ones this Valentine’s Day (Shop.org)
19.3% of consumers will purchase Valentine’s Day gifts online this year, up from 18.1% last year, and Shop.org notes that they spend a lot more than their offline counterparts:

• plan to spend a combined net average of almost $200 for Valentine’s Day, or about two-thirds more than offline-only shoppers
• plan to spend a net average of $114.25 on just their significant other or spouse, about 66% more than offline only shoppers
• will spend almost twice as much as offline only shoppers on jewelry, budgeting a net average of over $50 for this gift item
• will spend more than their offline-only counterparts on other family members such as children and parents, as well as friends, co-workers and pets
• One-third will make some purchases in discount stores and department stores and 1 in 5 will head to a florist and specialty stores

In addition, almost half of online shoppers (46%) own a smartphone, and almost one in five (17%) own a tablet device. Not surprisingly, quite a few of these online shoppers will be using these devices as part of their shopping process.

Retailers Feel The Love This Valentine’s Day (IBISWorld)
IBISWorld expects consumers to spend $19.8 billion, or $131.75 per person this year, an increase of 5.0% from 2011 led by strong growth in dining out and romantic getaways:

• Restaurants are likely to see the biggest boost this year with sales slated to increase by 6.1% to an estimated $9.5 billion driven by restaurants’ initiatives (including special courses for the holiday and prix fixe arrangements)
• Travel is also expected to rebound this year, with consumers spending 5.4% more this year than last year on weekend getaways
• Following last year’s 9.0% increase in sales, jewelry is expected to grow by 5.2% in 2012 to $1.6 billion, as retailers offer lower-priced options especially for the holiday while the luxury market will continue growing as it has since late 2010
• Candy sales are forecast to grow by 3.6% to $2.7 billion, as consumers seek out exotic flavors and combinations, which tend to be pricier than the traditional gummy and chocolate treats the holiday is known for, and helped by the rising price of cocoa is being passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices
• Flowers are expected to increase by 3.3% this year, most of which will be ordered through online retailers, which allow them to browse and compare prices easily
• Greeting cards, which have shown lackluster performance for the past five years, are expected to continue their slow growth in 2012, increasing by only 1.6%
• Clothing and lingerie sales are also expected to underperform total Valentine’s Day sales, rising 2.8% to $1.2 billion, but consumers are still more likely to shop for traditional Valentine’s Day items

No Economic Recovery for Valentine’s Day – Americans Spending Less this Year (Visa)
Visa finds that love is on a budget this year, finding that Americans will spend less on Valentine’s Day gifts, flowers, dining and other items this year – $117 this year, down 3% from $121 in 2011.

• The drop can largely be explained by the plummeting enthusiasm among women for spending on Valentine’s Day, falling from $101 in 2011, to a meager $87 in 2012 – a 14% drop
• In contrast, men are actually planning on spending more this year, $149, compared to $140 in 2011, an increase of 6%
• Younger people (18-24 years old) plan on spending the most of any age group at $132, while those 25-34 expect to spend $124
• Consumers between the ages of 35 and 49 will spend an average of $123 and people 50-64 years of age plan to spend just $98
• Consumers who earn between $20k and $30k plan to spend just $96, $30k to $40k, $120, those earning $40k to $50k, $105 and individuals earning over $50k, $126, while those earning over $75k expect to spend almost $139

Most Shoppers Will Show Their Love for Less Than $100 This Valentine’s Day (PriceGrabber)
Results from PriceGrabber’s Valentine’s Day shopping survey reveal that 68 percent of consumers who indicated that they plan to celebrate the holiday will spend less than $100 on gifts, with most planning to spend between $25 and $50 total:

• 56% indicated that they plan to spend the same amount as in 2011, 20% will spend more, another 20% will spend less, and 4% will not purchase a gift this year
• 56% indicate that the economy will have an effect on their Valentine’s Day purchasing decisions
• 54% of consumers indicated that they will buy gifts in a brick-and-mortar store, 34% will shop online, 2% will shop using a mobile phone, and 1% will shop using a tablet
• A notable 42% of shoppers who plan to celebrate Valentine’s Day indicated that they will use a daily deal site

“PriceGrabber anticipates that shoppers will spend about the same amount on Valentine’s Day this year as they did in 2011,” commented Graham Jones, general manager of PriceGrabber. “Valentine’s Day is a very consistent holiday that presents an opportunity for consumers to show affection for a loved one on a more reasonably priced scale than during the holiday season, and we expect shoppers to take full advantage of discounts that will be available online, in brick-and-mortar stores and via a mobile device.”

Valentine’s Day 2012: Open Hearts, Open Wallets (American Express)
American Express expects consumers to increase Valentine’s Day spending to an average of $196, up 8% over last year:

• four million plan to get engaged on February 14
• more than half of consumers (54% vs. 41% in 2011) plan to purchase Valentine’s Day gifts
• The most popular gifts among couples include flowers (29%), gift cards (19%), jewelry (15%) and electronics (13%), while 46% intend to visit their favorite restaurants to celebrate the holiday (up from 39% last year)

“Whether people are planning to get engaged, or just celebrate the holiday with flowers and a night out, consumers are telling us they can open their wallets a little wider for Valentine’s day,” said Sonali Chakravorti, Vice President at American Express. “We’ve seen a consistent trend of consumers saying they will spend more, from holiday shopping to 2012 travel plans, and spending plans for February 14 are no exception.”

Society of American Florists (SAF)

• Estimated number of roses produced for Valentine’s Day in 2011: 196 million
• Valentine’s Day the No. 1 holiday for florists in fresh flowers, capturing 36% of holiday transactions and 40% of dollar volume
• At all outlets, Valentine’s Day represents 20% of transactions & 25% of dollar volume for fresh flowers & plants