Archive for April, 2010

Consumer Confidence, Pent-Up Demand Drive Retail Gains

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Retail sales continue to post impressive gains as strong demand for spring merchandise and improving consumer confidence have helped sustain the momentum we have witnessed over the past eight weeks.

The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) reported that chain store sales rose a slight 0.2% from the prior week, the sixth consecutive gain, while year-over-year sales jumped the most in nearly six years, increasing 5.5%.

ICSC-Goldman Sachs Weekly US Chain Store Sales“Sales continued to improve over the latest week, helped by robust customer traffic, especially at discounters, department and apparel stores,” said Michael Niemira, ICSC’s chief economist. “The release of pent-up demand continues to help lift the underlying spending profile for today’s consumers.”

Indeed, consumers are feeling much better about their personal finances and have shown a willingness to be less cautious with their discretionary spending so far this year. The Conference Board reported this morning that its Consumer Confidence Index rose to 57.9 in April, up from 52.3 in March and the highest level since September 2008. Continue reading ‘Consumer Confidence, Pent-Up Demand Drive Retail Gains’

Weekly Retail Sales Rise Again

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Retailers posted another week of sales gains as warmer weather and easy comparisons to a year ago continue to drive positive momentum.

The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) reported that chain store sales rose a slight 0.2% from the prior week, the fifth consecutive gain, while sales gained a strong 4.6% from the year-ago period.

ICSC-Goldman Sachs Weekly US Chain Store Sales“Helped by seasonably warm temperatures for the week, customer traffic—especially at department and apparel-specialty stores—improved over the same week of the prior year,” said Michael Niemira, ICSC director of research and chief economist. “However, with about 4 to 5 percentage points of March’s monthly sales lift due to the Easter calendar shift, the April ‘echo’ will depress store sales somewhat,”

Therefore, ICSC Research expects April comp store sales to be flat to down 3% after a hefty 9% gain in March. However, the combined March-April period is projected to show a healthy 4% increase from last year. Continue reading ‘Weekly Retail Sales Rise Again’

Monday Retail News & Rumors

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A lot of interesting bits of retail news and rumors have come out over the past week:

  • Multiple sources say that Radio Shack is being very actively eyed by both private equity shops and Best Buy. JP Morgan has been chosen to oversee the sales process. Radio Shack has a $290 million available fund that was intended for share re-purchase, but so far has not committed any of that money to buy back shares. That is a strong indication of an impending sale.
  • Neiman Marcus is testing a new discount concept in an 11,000 square foot test store at Inwood Village, an upscale suburb of Dallas. The company is presenting brand name fashion and accessories in an environment that is a cross between a boutique and an outlet. For the moment it will operate under the Last Call nameplate, which is their current outlet, but will soon be re-named under a different new brand. The merchandise is being bought and discounted at 30-40% specifically for that store, and prices will top out at $300.
  • Harley Greenfield, CEO of troubled and struggling Jennifer Convertibles, was arrested and charged with drunk driving after hitting and killing a pedestrian with his 2010 Chevy in Queens last Wednesday. Greenfield, 65, was one of the founders and a key leader of the family business which has endured losses for the last several years.
  • Rock & Republic, one of the best-known premium denim companies, which filed for bankruptcy on April 1, is said to be drawing a lot of investor interest. Last year, in an effort to keep themselves in business, they took a $15 million loan from a well known California garment investor, Richard Koral, supported by his brother, Seven for Mankind owner Peter Koral. That loan, which was due on April 2, was secured by Rock’s intellectual property, valued at $50 million. The bankruptcy avoided that transfer of assets. Rock has long been well respected for its product and marketing , but less so for their ability to run and manage a business of it’s size. The company reportedly had revenues of $97 million and profits of $3 million in 2009.
  • Off price mens retailer K&G, owned by Mens Warehouse, installed a former Macy’s merchant, Mary Beth Blake, as it’s President less than 2 years ago. She has dramatically increased the mix of trendy women’s apparel, including adding a designer showcase dimension, and the store is now much more competitive with other discounters. She believes they can garner market share in designer fashion while separating themselves from those discounters by being the headquarters for mens tailored clothing.

Retail News and Notes for Week Ending 4/16

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We added several companies to our database this week, bringing our total coverage universe up to 49 U.S. retailers. Let us know if there are additional companies you would like to see analyzed:

Bebe Stores
Belk
Big Lots
J. Crew



Here are some of the more compelling reads from the last week:

  • If you think it’s tough to get a read on how consumers are feeling now, think about what it’s like for retailers who are trying to forecast how generous their customers will be at Christmastime (CNBC)
  • U.S. consumer sentiment took a surprise negative turn in early April due to persistently grim outlook on income & jobs (Reuters)
  • The outlook for luxury goods is going from bleak to almost chic, according to a new report by consultancy Bain & Co: sales of luxury goods will rise 4% globally in 2010, to €158 billion, following an unprecedented 8% drop last year (WSJ)
  • Best Buy and Walmart Capture Two-Thirds of Circuit City’s Total Dollar Share (NPD)
  • Restaurants all over the country are beginning to see signs of a potential recovery after a dismal 2009 (NY Times)
  • What’s Behind The Coupon Comeback? Once on their way to extinction, coupons made a strong resurgence in 2009, with redemptions rising 27% (Nielsen)
  • After a Stagnant 2009, Some Retail Chains Begin to Expand: While most national retailers spent 2009 trying not to drown, a brighter outlook for U.S. economy and better pricing on available space has led to an increase in expansion announcements in 2010 (Retail Traffic)

Retail Sales Post 5th Straight Gain, Strong Across the Board

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The U.S. Department of Commerce released March retail sales this morning, reporting that sales rose an adjusted 1.6% from February and surged 10.0% (unadjusted) from the year-ago period, the largest year-over-year increase since March 2000. This was the fifth consecutive gain after 15 straight monthly declines:

Total US Monthly Retail & Food Services Sales

However, the extremely strong gains are deceiving as results are being compared to very depressed levels from a year ago, when overall sales tumbled 8.4%, 11.6%, and 10.6% in January, February, and March respectively. In addition, much warmer and drier weather after a dismal February, as well as Easter falling a week earlier this year certainly played a part in this month’s strength.

Total sales for the month were still down 1.6% from both March 2008 and 2007. Year-to-date, total sales are 5.8% higher than last year, but still down 5.0% and 1.7% from 2008 and 2007 respectively. To put in perspective how absolutely dismal 2009 was, consider that in the previous 15+ years, from January 1993 through August 2008, there were a total of only 3 months in which YoY decreases were reported: Continue reading ‘Retail Sales Post 5th Straight Gain, Strong Across the Board’

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