RetailSails

Retail sales were relatively strong this past week, as dry weather and warming temperatures across much of the country spurred markedly higher customer traffic compared to a year ago. The first week of March is notoriously light on volume and retailers continue to benefit from easy year-over-year comparisons, but nonetheless results show that the positive momentum we have seen since September continues.

The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) reported that chain store sales saw the strongest gains in years for the first week of March, as sales increased 2.9% from the prior week (best since Dec 2001) and gained 3.4% over the prior-year period, which was the best year-over-year showing since July 2007. “To paraphrase the old saw, March sales started off like a lion as better weather got consumers motivated about spring-related merchandise,” said Michael Niemira, ICSC’s chief economist.

The company said Weather Trends International (WTI) reported that the week was the 2nd driest to start a March in 18 years. WTI observed that, “The northern third of the country actually had the most improved conditions with much warmer and drier weather while the South actually had a continuation of cool conditions. The weekend was the warmest part of the week which was a plus for early Spring merchandise sales.”

Redbook Research, meanwhile, noted that even with relatively strong gains, sales were below plan for the week. The company said that same-store sales rose 3.1% for the first week of March following a 1.5% gain the prior week. Relative to February, month-to-date sales were up 0.7%.

“With four more weeks left to run, some retailers noted that the first week of March was the smallest week in terms of expected sales volume, and therefore unrepresentative, making it too early to determine the trend for the month as a whole,” said Redbook analyst Catlin Levis. “Retailers are looking in particular for improvement in seasonal business as warmer weather, St. Patrick’s Day celebration, Spring Break and an early Easter holiday draw closer.” she added.

Both companies noted that since Easter falls a week earlier this year than last, sales will be pulled into March from April, which will positively skew this month’s results. We will therefore be focusing on the combined March-April results from retailers for comparative purposes. ICSC expects March sales to be up 2.5-3.5% after a 3.7% gain in February. Redbook projects sales to increase 3.7% in March, compared to a 2.2% drop a year ago.