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This morning, we reported that consolidated same-store sales for the 30 retailers we track rose 3.9% in February, compared to a 3.4% decline in the year-ago period.
For comparative purposes, below are the results and trends of several other firms which track monthly sales. In addition, we have compiled quotes and commentary from several firms and analysts. There is no doubt February represented a strong month in the face of tough weather conditions, and the trend is certainly positive. However, January and February are notoriously light months and results are up against awful numbers from a year ago – retailers will need to sustain the momentum through back-to-school season to convince us the recovery is for real:
| Same-Store Sales Chg (YoY) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb-10 | Jan-10 | Dec-09 | Feb-09 | Jan-09 | Dec-08 | |
| RetailSails | 3.9% | 3.2% | 3.0% | -3.4% | -4.3% | -3.8% |
| Retail Forward | 3.9% | 3.3% | 3.0% | -4.1% | -4.4% | -4.1% |
| Retail Metrics | 4.1% | 3.3% | 3.0% | -4.1% | -5.6% | -3.5% |
| Thomson Reuters | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.9% | -4.7% | -5.6% | -4.0% |
| ICSC Research | 3.7% | 3.0% | 3.6% | -4.3% | -4.8% | -4.6% |
| Redbook Research | 3.7% | 3.0% | 2.7% | -0.2% | -1.8% | -1.9% |
“Many retailers were negatively impacted by February’s severe snowstorms, especially in the Northeast. ICSC figures that the industry‐wide weather drag on the February sales growth rate was worth about one percentage point. However, that did not seem to bring to a halt the retail recovery, even in the most weather‐sensitive segments. For example, apparel‐specialty store sales posted a solid 6.8% gain—its strongest performance since March 2007 (+7.0%—which was impacted by the Easter‐shift in the calendar). Macy’s experience in February was typical of the industry. Macy’s chairman, president and CEO Terry Lundgren noted that his company’s February sales were “strong…despite a series of winter storms that affected store operations in some of [Macy’s] largest markets during key selling periods of the month.”
Contributing to the strength in February chain‐store sales growth was the ongoing “easy comparison” with the same month of the prior year and a combination of stronger consumer demand in the aftermath of the 2007‐2009 recession’s pent‐up spending and better retailer margins, inventory control, product “right‐sizing” and execution by the retailer.” – ICSC Research
“Shoppers remain deal-focused and inclined to trade down among products and brands, but they are clearly ready to shop more and make some of the purchases they avoided during the recession,” – Frank Badillo, Senior Economist at Retail Forward
Some findings from the February ShopperScape Survey by Retail Forward:
- In February, the percentage of shoppers planning to spend less in the coming month compared with the same period last year declined to 40% (in terms of a three-month moving, the lowest percentage since early 2008.
- In February, about two-thirds of shoppers said that the economic downturn had changed their shopping behavior somewhat or significantly. That was down from about three-quarters of shoppers in August 2008.
- Significantly fewer shoppers say they are shopping less often, buying fewer things or buying only things they truly need compared with August 2008. Many of these limiting behaviors also have diminished compared with October 2009.
- Shoppers are somewhat more likely to be trading down among products and brands compared with October 2009—although compared with August 2008 shoppers are somewhat less likely to be trading down among products, brands and retailers
“We’re going on four or five months here of continuous incremental growth,” said Janet Hoffman, global managing director of Accenture’s Retail practice. “It’s not breakaway spending, but I think that there is enough evidence to tell us that the consumer is happy to be back in the marketplace shopping.”
“The consumer looks to have come out of hibernation,” said Ken Perkins of Retail Metrics, adding February performance was the best since before the start of the recession in November 2007 and marked retailers’ sixth straight monthly increase. “We need to see more of this to really feel the consumer is coming back.”
“You’re seeing some of the most positive growth rates out of the high-end but you don’t want to misread that,” said Michael McNamara, vice president for research and analysis at SpendingPulse. “You’re just growing off of an absolutely tiny sales base last year. Some of the areas that really got hurt the hardest last year are now coming back a bit.”
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