Archive for July, 2009



2 New Companies Added to Coverage

We expanded our coverage universe by adding 2 fast-food retailers today: McDonald’s and CKE Restaurants. Both companies report monthly same-store sales data, and while their reporting periods are staggered and don’t line up with the majority of retailers who report monthly, their results will still provide a timely measure of performance in the quick-serve sector:

  • As the world’s largest fast-food retailer, McDonald’s has proven itself throughout the recession, reporting an incredible 73 consecutive months of comparable sales gains.  They are due to report both sales data for June and fiscal 2nd Quarter results on July 23rd.
  • CKE Restaurants reported same-store sales results this morning for period 6, which represents the 4-week reporting period ending July 13th. The company reported that company operated restaurant sales decreased 3.4% to $86.4 million, while same-store sales were down 5.0% from a year ago. Company-operated Sales at Carl’s Jr. were down 2.4% and same-store sales declined 6.1%, while company-operated sales at Hardee’s decreased 4.5% and same-store sales declined 3.6%. Commenting on the results, CEO Andrew F. Puzder said “The decline in our same-store sales remains our management team’s primary focus. Period six was a particularly difficult period from a same-store sales perspective as both brands were rolling over strong prior year sales due, in part, to last year’s government stimulus checks. However, we are encouraged by the results of some of our recent sales-building initiatives.”


McDonald’s CKE
FY Systemwide Sales (millions) $70,693 $3,341
FY Revenue (millions) $23,522 $1,483
FY Net Income (millions) $4,313 $37.0
Systemwide Restaurant Count 32,060 3,133
5yr Avg Systemwide Sales Growth 9.5% 3.0%
5yr Avg Revenue Growth 7.8% 1.7%
5yr Avg Operating Margins 21.3% 5.7%

U.S. Chain Store Sales: Week Ending 7/18/09

This morning, there were 2 reports out on US chain store sales results for the week ending July 18th:

  • The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) said that comparable same-store sales for large chain stores fell by 0.3% in the second week of July vs a year ago, while same-store sales increased 0.5% on a week-over week-basis. Michael P. Niemira, ICSC chief economist, said although the increase was modest, it was spread across most segments despite chilly weather. ICSC Research expects same-store sales for all of July to be down about 5.5% from last year.
  • Redbook Research reported that retail same-store sales for the week ending July 18th declined 5.8% compared to the year-ago period, while MTD sales for the 1st 2 weeks of July were down were down 1.7% from a month ago and down 5.7% from last year. The firm added that July is usually a clearance month and said business varied across store formats, with discounters doing their best business in consumer staples like food and household supplies. Note that Wal-Mart stopped reporting weekly and monthly sales figures in May of this year, and the substantial impact they had on the index is evident in the graph below.

While June was one of the wettest months on record, this month is shaping up to be one of the coolest July’s on record, especially for the northeast. That doesn’t bode well for retailers already struggling with an extremely tight spending environment, and July sales results will most likely be as bad or worse than June on a year-over-year basis.


Weekly US Retail Same Store Sales 7-18-09


ICSC Weekly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index
Week Ending Index(1977=100) YoY Change WoW Change
July 18 491.7 -0.3% 0.5%
July 11 489.4 -0.7% -0.9%
July 4 493.8 0.5% 0.1%
June 27 493.4 0.6% 1.6%
June 20 485.5 -0.9% 0.0%
June 13 485.6 -1.5% -0.6%

*Source: ICSC-Goldman Sachs Index
The ICSC weekly U.S. retail chain store sales index is a joint publication between ICSC and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. It measures nominal same-store sales, excluding restaurant and vehicle demand, and represents about 75 retail chain stores.


Johnson Redbook Weekly Retail Sales Index
Week Ending Week YoY Chg MTD MoM Chg MTD YoY Chg
July 18 -5.8% -1.7% -5.7%
July 11 -5.7% -4.3% -5.7%
July 4 -4.2% -4.3% -4.4%
June 27 -4.3% -4.4% -4.4%
June 20 -4.2% -4.4% -4.5%
June 13 -4.8% -4.5% -4.6%

*Source: Johnson Redbook Index
The Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index is a sales-weighted index of year-over-year same-store sales growth in a sample of large U.S. general merchandise retailers representing about 9,000 stores.


ICSC Research expects same-store sales for July to be down
about 5.5 percent from last year

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CIT Woes Worry Retailers

Yesterday it was reported that CIT Group, the 101-yr old lender to small & medium sized businesses, failed to convince the US government to give the company another bailout.  It seems the most likely course of action for the them now is to seek bankruptcy protection, as CreditSights estimated they would need $4-$6 Billion in capital to avoid filing. There is still hope that bankruptcy can be avoided, as bondholders are considering a debt-for-equity swap.  This might give the company time, but with 8 straight quarterly losses totalling $3.4 Billion and an expected loss for the rest of 2009, they would most likely become just another zombie bank.

It’s unclear exactly how large an effect their failure will have on the market, as CIT all but ceased making new loans over the past 9 months.  However, retailers are certainly worried: of it’s 1 million customers, 300,000 are retailers, and they lent over $4 Billion to apparel manufacturers and retailers in the U.S. last year.  Also, CIT is the largest factoring firm in the apparel sector, financing a factoring volume of $8.3 Billion in the first quarter of 2009. Tracy Mullin, chief executive of the National Retail Federation, said in a letter to Treasury’s Geithner that a CIT failure “cannot be allowed to happen at a time when retailers are already struggling to survive the national recession.”

Others believe the effects of CIT’s failure won’t be so severe. Jason Mudrick, president of New York-based investment firm Mudrick Capital Management LP and a CIT bondholder, said “Lending to small businesses wouldn’t stop. Their factoring business could be sold in a heartbeat to a competitor.” However, credit to small and medium sized businesses still remains extremely tight, and even if many of the retailers are able to get credit from a competitor, it will mean higher costs of credit they can’t pass on to the customer. At a time when margins are already tight and customers are unwilling to spend, this will most likely lead to the demise of many retailers who could have otherwise weathered the storm.

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U.S. Chain Store Sales: Week Ending 7/11/09

After learning last week that retailers struggled through the month of June, we got 2 reports this morning which showed that the first week of July was not much better:

  • After reporting last week that retail same-store decreased by 5.1% in June YoY, The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) said that comparable same-store sales for large chain stores fell by 0.7% in the first week of July vs a year ago, while same-store sales decreased 0.9% on a week-over week-basis, the first weekly drop in a month. Commenting on the results, Michael P. Niemira, ICSC chief economist, said, “The cool weather pared seasonal demand, which accentuated the challenges for the industry from the economy and from reduced clearance for some retailers that did not stock up for the season. July will likely be another tough month as it is a clearance month for seasonal goods and many retailers already took hefty markdowns and have less to clear than one-year ago, since they ordered less too. Given this, ICSC Research anticipates industry sales to be down by about 5.5 percent from last year,”
  • Redbook Research reported that retail same-store sales for the week ending July 11th declined 5.7% compared to the year-ago period, as well as down 4.3% from last month. Note that Wal-Mart stopped reporting weekly and monthly sales figures in May of this year, and the substantial impact they had on the index is evident in the graph below.


Weekly US Retail Same Store Sales 7-11-09


ICSC Weekly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index
Week Ending Index(1977=100) YoY Change WoW Change
July 11 489.4 -0.7% -0.9%
July 4 493.8 0.5% 0.1%
June 27 493.4 0.6% 1.6%
June 20 485.5 -0.9% 0.0%
June 13 485.6 -1.5% -0.6%
June 6 488.6 -0.8% 0.2%

*Source: ICSC-Goldman Sachs Index
The ICSC weekly U.S. retail chain store sales index is a joint publication between ICSC and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. It measures nominal same-store sales, excluding restaurant and vehicle demand, and represents about 75 retail chain stores.


Johnson Redbook Weekly Retail Sales Index
Week Ending Week YoY Chg MTD MoM Chg MTD YoY Chg
July 11 -5.7% -4.3% -5.7%
July 4 -4.2% -4.3% -4.4%
June 27 -4.3% -4.4% -4.4%
June 20 -4.2% -4.4% -4.5%
June 13 -4.8% -4.5% -4.6%
June 6 -4.4% -4.3% -4.4%

*Source: Johnson Redbook Index
The Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index is a sales-weighted index of year-over-year same-store sales growth in a sample of large U.S. general merchandise retailers representing about 9,000 stores.


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U.S. Retail Sales Up 0.6% in June

The U.S. Census Bureau reported today that Advance Monthly Retail Sales for June were up 0.6% from the prior month, better than the 0.4% rise analysts were expecting and the biggest jump since January.  From the year ago period, sales were down 9.0%.  Excluding automobiles, retail and food services sales were up 0.3% from May, slightly less than consensus estimates for a gain of 0.4%, and a decline of 7.9% from a year ago.  The last 4 reports have showed marginal improvements on a month-over-month basis.  However, excluding autos, gasoline, and building materials, which is used to calculate GDP figures for consumer spending, sales declined 0.1% for the second straight month.


Advance Monthly Retail Sales - Total Retail & Food Services - June


Looking at year-over-year comparisons, we can see that there has been stabilization at a low level, with retail sales moving sideways since the fall:

Advance Monthly Retail Sales - Total Retail & Food Services YoY - June


To really appreciate how weak retail sales have been over the past year, we need to take a longer-term view – below is data going back to the start of 1993:

Advance Monthly Retail Sales - Total Retail & Food Services, LT - June


We will be posting long-term charts for all the various sectors later today.



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