RetailSails

January Same-Store Sales Recall the Good-Old Days

Published February 4, 2010 Uncategorized 1 Comment
Tags: consumer spending, retail sales, same-store sales

It appears retailers were able to carry the positive holiday momentum into the new year after all, as most companies posted better-than-expected same-store sales in January.

While typically the lightest month of the year in terms of volume, and no doubt in large part due to extremely easy comparisons to a year ago, January’s strong performance nonetheless suggests retailers might have finally turned the corner. Preliminary results show total sales increased 5.6% from a year ago to $26.6 billion for the 32 retailers we track, while same-store sales were up 3.3%. This is the fifth straight gain after 12 consecutive months of declines, and the best showing since April 2008.

RetailSails Monthly Store Sales Index

Retailers were focused on clearance merchandise during the month, and inventories are still being kept extremely tight even as the spring lines are rolling in. Some of the strongest performers in January were not surprising: warehouse clubs Costco (+8.0%) & BJ’s Wholesale (+8.4%), who were helped by gas prices that are nearly 50% higher than a year ago; off-price retailers TJX (+12.0%) & Ross Stores (+8.0%), who have been posting consistently strong results for the better part of a year; teen retailer Aeropostale (+6.0%) which posted its 29th same-store sales gain in the last 30 months. Continue reading ‘January Same-Store Sales Recall the Good-Old Days’

Early Comp Results for January Disappointing

Published February 3, 2010 Uncategorized Leave a Comment
Tags: hot topic (hott), retail sales, same-store sales, walgreens (wag), zumiez (zumz)

Those who were expecting retailers to carry their holiday momentum into the new year might be in for a disappointment. Four companies have reported January same-store sales so far, with three of them posting results that missed analyst expectations. Retailers were focused on clearance merchandise during the month, and continue to keep inventories very lean.

Hot Topic reported a decrease of 11.2% in net sales and a 13.1% decline in overall same-store sales, compared to a 6.0% increase in the same period a year ago. This was the ninth consecutive month of negative comparable sales, and worse than the -12.1% analysts were expecting. Results at Torrid have been gradually improving and the chain saw a 5.7% comp gain in the month, but that was offset by a 17.4% plunge in same-store sales at Hot Topic stores.

Continue reading ‘Early Comp Results for January Disappointing’

Weekly Retail Sales: January Ends With a Whimper

Published February 2, 2010 Uncategorized Leave a Comment
Tags: consumer spending, icsc, johnson redbook, retail sales, same-store sales

Retail sales were soft in the last week of January, as limited clearance inventory and unseasonable weather left bargain-hunting consumers with little reason to shop. As retailers close out their fiscal year, they are looking ahead to next month where they hope events such as the Super Bowl, Valentine’s Day and Presidents Day will spur increased consumer activity.

The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) reported that chain store sales for the week ending Jan 30th increased a slight 0.1% from the prior week as volatility continues on low volume, while sales were up 0.4% from the year-ago period. January was characterized by wild week-to-week swings, the result of a low-volume month dominated by clearance activity and weather fluctiations. ICSC expects January comp-store sales to be up about 1% from last year.

ShopperTrak won’t release weekly results until later today, but this is what the company had to say earlier in the month when they predicted sales would increase 1.2% in the first quarter:

Early in Q1, retailers should experience lower sales and traffic levels following the frantic final two weeks in December that ultimately pushed the holiday season into the Black. ShopperTrak reports that these slower levels will most likely continue through President’s Day (Feb. 15) – which should provide a slight uptick due to the long weekend – then remain slightly above last year’s pace until St. Patrick’s Day (March 17) which could also provide a slight retail uptick as well.

Continue reading ‘Weekly Retail Sales: January Ends With a Whimper’

Valentine’s Day Spending Expected to Remain Subdued This Year

Published February 2, 2010 Uncategorized Leave a Comment
Tags: consumer spending, retail sales, retail trends, valentine's day

While some may write it off as a “manufactured” Hallmark holiday, Valentine’s Day takes a larger share of shoppers’ wallets than any other holiday season except Christmas and back-to-school. Consumers are still being cautious with their discretionary dollars and won’t be spreading the love like in years past, but spending is expected to hold relatively steady compared to last year.

Based on the National Retail Federation’s (NRF) annual Valentine’s Day survey, the average consumer will spend $103.00 this year on traditional Valentine’s Day merchandise, up slightly from $102.50 in 2009. However, overall spending is expected to decline by about 4% to $14.1 billion as couples plan to spend less on each other but more on their family, friends, co-workers and even their pets. Not surprisingly, men will spend nearly twice that of women, with the average man planning to shell out $135.35 compared to $72.28 for the average woman.

	Average Spend per Consumer	Total Spend (millions)
2010	$ 103.00	$ 14,131
2009	$ 102.50	$ 14,668
2008	$ 122.98	$ 17,022
2007	$ 119.67	$ 16,905
2006	$ 100.89	$ 13,696
2005	$ 97.27	$ 13,190
2004	$ 99.24	$ 12,790

source: National Retail Federation’s Valentine’s Day Consumer Intentions and Actions Survey, conducted for the NRF by BIGresearch

Traditional gifts remain the most popular, with greeting cards, candy, and flowers most prevalent on Valentine’s Day shopping lists. Discount stores will be the top destination this year, with 40.9% of consumers planning to purchase gifts there, followed by department stores (31.1%) and specialty (greeting card/gift, electronics) stores (21.4%). Continue reading ‘Valentine’s Day Spending Expected to Remain Subdued This Year’

Retail Reading List for Week Ending 1/29/10

Published January 29, 2010 Uncategorized Leave a Comment
Tags: consumer, retail, retail sales

For all the talk of stabilization and an improved outlook for the year ahead, we continue to see layoff announcements from major retailers: Walmart announced it will cut 11,200 jobs at Sam’s Club locations as it outsources in-store product demonstration jobs; Home Depot is laying off about 1,000 people as it closes 3 under-performing pilot locations; Macy’s will be eliminating 1,500 store-level positions.
Demographic tidbits: Sharp increase in affluent online shoppers during holidays, don’t count on baby boomers to pull us out of this recession - consumer spending patterns are already changing, women cut back their spending in 2009 more than men, survey says.
Consumer confidence continues to improve as future prospects for the economy look brighter, but consumers still describe their own personal finances as dismal – consumer spending is expected to lag previous post-recession recovery periods: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index Increases Moderately, Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Hits Highest Level in Two Years.
While consumer optimism is on the rise, will anyone pay full price anymore? As a result of retailers’ heavy discounting during harsh economic times, consumers have become increasingly adjusted to shopping on sale, a trend that will continue to pose a challenge to retailers trying to recover.
Retailers are increasingly viewing filing for bankruptcy as the beginning of the end, and are increasingly wary that they could turn out to be the next Circuit City. “Quick bankruptcies are a good thing, but they’re not necessarily good for a retailer,” Why retailers are avoiding bankruptcy (or lessons from Circuit City)
Retailers try new survival strategies for 2010: The recession pushed shoppers to pick necessities over discretionary items, discounts over luxury. But retailers hope to shift such behavioral changes further in coming months, affecting what consumers will buy, pay and experience at stores.

RetailSails

January Same-Store Sales Recall the Good-Old Days

Early Comp Results for January Disappointing

Weekly Retail Sales: January Ends With a Whimper

Valentine’s Day Spending Expected to Remain Subdued This Year

Retail Reading List for Week Ending 1/29/10

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